Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin Hovers as Analysts Warn of $92K Risks, Semler Targets Massive BTC Hoard

PLUS: Semler Scientific charts bold plans to hold over 100,000 BTC by 2027

As Asian markets open, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $104,500, holding steady despite escalating tensions in the Middle East. Price action remains subdued, with BTC slipping just 2% over the past week, according to CoinDesk market data.

Yet beneath the surface, analysts are sharply divided on whether this calm signals resilience—or masks looming danger.

Three new reports this week from CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and trading firm Flowdesk paint the same immediate picture: low volatility, tight price ranges, and muted on-chain activity. Retail interest has faded, leaving institutional players—from ETF managers to crypto whales—increasingly in charge of market flows.

But CryptoQuant’s latest report issued the starkest warning.

In a note published June 19, the analytics firm cautioned that Bitcoin could retest support near $92,000—or even fall as low as $81,000—if demand fails to rebound. Despite some continued spot buying, inflows are well below historical trends. ETF demand has dropped over 60% since April, and whale accumulation has been halved. Meanwhile, short-term holders have shed roughly 800,000 BTC since late May.

CryptoQuant’s proprietary demand momentum indicator, which tracks net buying across major cohorts, has plunged to minus 2 million BTC—the lowest level in its records.

Glassnode, however, sees things differently.

In its weekly on-chain report, Glassnode acknowledged Bitcoin’s quiet blockchain activity, including fewer transactions, low fees, and reduced miner revenues. But rather than viewing this as weakness, the firm suggests it could reflect the network’s evolution toward institutional use. Settlement volumes remain significant, but are increasingly dominated by large-value transfers, indicating the chain is serving big players rather than smaller retail flows.

Meanwhile, derivatives activity has surged, with futures and options volumes routinely outpacing spot trading by factors of 7x to 16x. Glassnode argues this signals a maturing market, even if it’s less explosive than previous retail-driven cycles.

Flowdesk’s outlook splits the difference.

The France-based market maker describes the crypto market as “coiled, not cracking.” Although altcoin trading is thinning out and overall market-making volumes remain flat, Flowdesk highlights new bright spots—including booming volumes in tokenized assets like gold-backed XAUT, stablecoin expansion, and rising activity in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.

For Flowdesk, the current lull might simply be the calm before a major directional move, which could break either higher or lower.

For now, uncertainty reigns. Even on prediction markets like Polymarket, traders are split almost evenly between bets on Bitcoin dropping to $90,000 this month—or surging to $115,000-$120,000.

Regardless of short-term swings, the tug-of-war between bullish institutional adoption and fading retail enthusiasm sets the stage for significant volatility ahead.

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Presto Research: Crypto Treasury Firms Less Risky Than Feared

Separately, Presto Research published a report arguing that Crypto Treasury Companies (CTCs)—firms like Strategy and Metaplanet—aren’t simply leveraged Bitcoin ETFs, but a new breed of financial vehicle with unique risk profiles.

Strategy’s recent capital raise, which brought in nearly $1 billion via perpetual preferred shares, demonstrates how Bitcoin’s volatility can actually be leveraged for an issuer’s advantage. Instruments like preferred shares, convertible bonds, and at-the-market (ATM) equity sales let these firms accumulate crypto aggressively without triggering margin calls.

Presto emphasized that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are unpledged and Metaplanet’s bonds are unsecured—meaning liquidation risk from collateral calls, a key factor in past crypto collapses such as Celsius and Three Arrows Capital, is largely absent here.

But these companies still face significant challenges, especially around managing dilution, cash flows, and capital timing. Metaplanet’s “bitcoin yield” metric, which measures BTC held per fully diluted share, underlines the focus on preserving shareholder value.

If these firms maintain financial discipline, they could earn premiums over net asset value (NAV), much like high-growth stocks in traditional markets. But if mismanaged, the same financial engineering tools that drive growth could accelerate their decline.

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Semler Scientific Sets Ambitious BTC Target

Meanwhile, Semler Scientific (Nasdaq: SMLR) has unveiled one of the most aggressive corporate Bitcoin strategies to date. The California-based medical device maker, which pivoted into crypto treasury operations last year, announced plans to grow its holdings to 10,000 BTC by end-2025, 42,000 by 2026, and an eye-watering 105,000 BTC by 2027.

This would more than double Semler’s current Bitcoin stash of 4,449 BTC within 30 months.

Semler aims to achieve this expansion through a mix of equity issuance, debt financing, and operational cash flow. Historically, its primary vehicle for buying Bitcoin has been its ATM equity program, which relies on the company’s shares trading at a premium to net asset value.

However, Strategy-Tracker data shows Semler’s market NAV multiple is currently just 0.859x, indicating that investors value its equity below the worth of its BTC holdings. This valuation discount could limit the firm’s ability to raise fresh capital at favorable terms.

Investors will be watching closely to see whether Semler can navigate this delicate balance as it executes its ambitious plans. Despite Bitcoin recently breaching all-time highs above $100,000, Semler’s stock is down nearly 40% year-to-date.

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Market Movements:

• BTC: Bitcoin remains trapped below $105,000, despite steady ETF inflows. Strong resistance sits at $105,150, with institutional accumulation balanced against short-term bearish momentum and global macro uncertainty.
• ETH: Ethereum found a floor at $2,490 after heavy selling breached key support levels. The price is consolidating tightly, with a breakout possible if it can clear resistance at $2,510 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• Gold: Gold traded near $3,366 on Thursday, holding steady as geopolitical risks offset the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals. Platinum slipped after touching a near-decade high. U.S. markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday.
• Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened 0.24% higher on Friday as Asia-Pacific equities mostly advanced ahead of China’s loan prime rate decision and amid continued tensions between Israel and Iran.