Asia Morning Brief: Bitcoin Rises as Polymarket Bets Signal Quick End to U.S. Shutdown

Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin Rebounds as Polymarket Bets on Swift End to U.S. Shutdown

BTC tops $106K, ETH surges 7% as bipartisan Senate deal revives risk appetite

Crypto markets rallied overnight as U.S. lawmakers moved closer to ending the month-long government shutdown, sparking renewed optimism across risk assets and prediction markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 4.2% to $106,269, while Ether (ETH) jumped 7.4% to $3,643, according to CoinDesk data, as traders priced in the prospect of Washington reopening ahead of Veterans Day. The rebound helped both assets recover a portion of last week’s losses amid easing macro uncertainty and improving liquidity.

On Polymarket, odds that the government will reopen by November 12 surged following reports that Senate negotiators reached a bipartisan funding deal late Sunday. The agreement would fund operations through January 30, reverse recent federal layoffs, and secure a December vote on extending Affordable Care Act tax credits — provisions that drew support from at least eight Democratic senators.

The turnaround represents one of the sharpest sentiment shifts of the year. Just a day earlier, prediction market traders saw a 63% chance the shutdown would extend past November 16.

Following the deal, President Trump told reporters, “We’re getting close to the shutdown ending,” a statement that traders interpreted as confirmation of an imminent resolution.

Broader Market Relief

While some government services remain disrupted — including air travel and welfare programs — markets are already signaling relief. The FAA has reduced flight capacity by 4%, causing thousands of cancellations, and the USDA has paused food-stamp payments. Still, investors are looking past short-term disruptions in anticipation of resumed government spending and improved liquidity.

Equities also opened higher in early trading, with major indexes tracking crypto’s move upward.

ETF Optimism Fades

Despite the positive headlines, some corners of the crypto market remain cautious. Traders have tempered expectations for a Cardano (ADA) ETF approval by year-end, citing limited SEC bandwidth after weeks of inactivity during the shutdown.

Just a month ago, the probability of an ADA ETF approval by late 2025 stood at 90%, according to CoinDesk data. That figure has since dropped to 38% as regulatory delays and shifting priorities take hold.

Market Snapshot

BTC: +4.2% to $106,269 — buoyed by expectations of a government funding resolution and risk-on sentiment returning to markets.
ETH: +7.4% to $3,643 — outperforming majors as traders rotated into higher-beta assets amid short covering and liquidity recovery.