Bitcoin, Ether, XRP Face September Test Amid Largest Whale Distribution in Years

Bitcoin (BTC) held just below $112,000 on Monday as traders weighed the market’s largest whale sell-off in over two years against signs of long-term accumulation and resilient altcoin performance.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that over 100,000 BTC—worth roughly $12.7 billion—have exited major wallets in the past 30 days. Analyst caueconomy called it “the largest coin distribution this year,” noting whale reserves fell by 114,920 BTC, briefly pushing spot prices below $108,000 last week. The scale of this distribution mirrors the aggressive position trimming seen in July 2022.

“The portfolios of major players are still shrinking, which may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the coming weeks,” the analyst said. These sales have coincided with softer ETF inflows and thinner trading volumes, leaving the market reliant on macroeconomic catalysts.

Despite short-term pressure, the long-term picture remains constructive. Bitcoin is down only 13% from its mid-August all-time high, a milder decline compared with historic pullbacks. CryptoQuant analyst Dave the Wave highlighted that Bitcoin’s one-year moving average has risen from $52,000 a year ago to $94,000, and he expects it to surpass $100,000 in October, signaling a structural uptrend.

Supply metrics further support this outlook. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, noted that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a record 14.3 million BTC, with over 70% held in wallets showing minimal spending activity. “Confidence in long-term value remains evident,” Lee said. He expects BTC to stabilize and regain momentum in a $105,000–$118,000 range, backed by ETF flows and bullish MACD signals.

Ethereum (ETH) traded near $4,307, with Lee projecting a $4,100–$4,600 band if ETF demand persists. Upcoming network upgrades and DeFi catalysts could drive further gains.

Altcoins showed modest improvement. XRP rose 2.3% to $2.96, Solana (SOL) gained 3.2% to $214, Dogecoin extended a 10.5% weekly climb to $0.236, and Cardano (ADA) added 6% to $0.865.

Market sentiment, however, remains cautious. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that total crypto market capitalization increased 2.5% last week to $3.85 trillion but still sits below its 50-day average. “This is a worrying indicator of underlying risk appetite,” he said, adding that the sentiment index dipped into fear at 44 over the weekend before rebounding to 51 on Monday, reflecting a wait-and-see mood among traders.

Seasonal September weakness compounds the cautious outlook. Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, highlighted that U.S. inflation data due midweek could steer the market. “Higher-than-expected numbers would pressure Bitcoin and Ethereum, while lower numbers could spark a rally,” he said via Telegram.