Bitcoin Recovers From Geopolitical Shock, Holds Firm Above Key On-Chain Support

Bitcoin weathered a volatile weekend as geopolitical tensions rattled markets, but the cryptocurrency has bounced back, maintaining crucial support levels that suggest underlying bullish sentiment remains intact.

Currently, the short-term holder realized price (STH RP) for bitcoin sits at $98,200, according to data from Glassnode. This metric reflects the average on-chain acquisition price of BTC held outside exchange reserves and moved within the past 155 days. It’s an important indicator because it helps separate short-term holders—who are statistically more likely to sell under stress—from long-term holders, offering insights into market sentiment and potential price floors.

The broader realized price represents the average price at which all coins in circulation last moved on-chain. By narrowing the focus to recently active coins, the STH RP acts as a sensitive barometer for volatility and market stress.

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Turbulence Driven by Geopolitical Tensions

Over the weekend, bitcoin prices slid amid intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran and rising concerns about a possible escalation involving the United States. With traditional financial markets closed, some investors were forced to liquidate bitcoin positions—not necessarily by choice, but to free up cash in the face of uncertainty.

Historically, bitcoin trading above the STH RP has signaled bullish market conditions, while sustained trading below it has often accompanied bearish trends or periods of price consolidation.

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Historical Context Underscores Importance of STH RP

Between June and October 2024, bitcoin traded below its STH RP, then around $62,000, reflecting cautious sentiment in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election. A similar pattern played out from February to April 2025, when BTC fell below the $92,000 STH RP level amid broader market jitters.

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Outlook: $98,200 Emerges as Key Level

Despite the weekend’s volatility, bitcoin has rebounded strongly, reclaiming levels above $100,000 and recently trading around $101,000. For the bullish momentum to sustain, it’s critical for BTC to stay above the $98,200 STH RP threshold. Holding this level signals that short-term holders remain in profit and reduces the likelihood of panic-driven selling, helping maintain upward price pressure.

Bitcoin’s resilience suggests that while geopolitical tensions remain a wildcard, strong on-chain fundamentals continue to support the broader bullish narrative.