Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Positioned for Growth Amid U.S. Economic Strength and Regulatory Progress

Bitcoin is likely to benefit from improving macroeconomic conditions, rising institutional interest, and advancing crypto legislation in the second half of 2025, according to a new report from Coinbase Research. However, the path forward for altcoins remains more uncertain, hinging on project-specific developments and regulatory clarity.

Macro Tailwinds Strengthen Bitcoin’s Case

Following a shaky first quarter marked by a temporary GDP contraction and trade-related headwinds, the U.S. economy is showing signs of renewed strength. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates Q2 growth at 3.8%, reflecting a strong rebound in activity. In parallel, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, coupled with a softer trade stance, have significantly reduced fears of a near-term recession.

This brighter economic picture, combined with declining dollar dominance and Bitcoin’s utility as an inflation hedge, has created favorable conditions for the leading cryptocurrency. While long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, Coinbase analysts note that BTC could still attract capital as a strategic store of value.

Altcoins Face Divergent Outlook

The outlook for altcoins is more mixed. Without near-term catalysts — such as ETF approvals or major protocol upgrades — they may underperform relative to Bitcoin. While some institutional interest is emerging, analysts caution that altcoin demand is still fragmented and highly sensitive to regulatory developments.

Corporate Adoption Expands — Alongside Risk

More public companies are incorporating crypto assets into their treasuries, supported by 2024’s accounting rule change that allows mark-to-market treatment. However, Coinbase warns that this rising exposure brings new risks, especially for firms using convertible debt to finance crypto purchases. In volatile markets, refinancing difficulties or price crashes could force untimely liquidations.

Legislation and ETF Approvals in Focus

Key developments in U.S. crypto regulation are expected to shape the market landscape further:

• The GENIUS Act, a bipartisan stablecoin bill, has cleared the Senate and awaits House approval.
• The broader CLARITY Act aims to clearly define the regulatory roles of the SEC and CFTC, potentially bringing long-awaited structure to token classifications and investor protections.
• Meanwhile, the SEC is reviewing over 80 crypto ETF filings, including those tied to staking assets, multi-token strategies, and altcoin-focused products. Several decisions are expected between July and October.

Outlook: A Tale of Two Narratives

Coinbase concludes that Bitcoin is set to benefit most from this convergence of macro and structural tailwinds. In contrast, altcoins will likely remain reactive to individual catalysts and ongoing regulatory developments — with investor caution still high.

“The combination of macro stabilization, institutional inflows, and advancing regulation creates a constructive setup for Bitcoin,” the report states. “Altcoins, however, must prove utility and regulatory compliance to sustain momentum.”

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