Bitcoin’s volatility remains unusually low, with price action consolidating as traders await the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

Analyst Checkmate highlights the so-called “choppiness index,” a measure of sideways price movement, noting that Bitcoin has experienced intensified volatility compression in recent weeks. Previous CoinDesk research has shown that Bitcoin’s implied volatility is at multi-year lows, reinforcing the current rangebound behavior.

Over the past several months, Bitcoin has traded in a relatively tight band between $110,000 and its all-time high of $124,000, currently hovering around $113,000. On a one-month timeframe, the choppiness index, as reported by checkonchain, has climbed to 54. Historically, similar levels preceded significant moves: in early November 2024, the index hit 64 before Bitcoin surged past $90,000 following President Trump’s election victory, while in early 2023, at the start of the current bull cycle, the index stood at 57.

These readings indicate that further consolidation is likely before a potential breakout, especially given the ongoing compression of volatility.

Traders are eyeing the upcoming U.S. CPI release at 12:30 PM UTC as a potential catalyst that could trigger either a spike in volatility or a decisive directional move in Bitcoin’s price.

Historical patterns also provide context: CoinDesk research from February noted that prolonged periods of low volatility and high choppiness have preceded sharp declines, including the drop that bottomed near $76,000 in April.