Figure Draws Mixed Wall Street Reactions as Banks Split on Blockchain Lending Outlook

The newly public fintech firm Figure (FIGR) is earning attention for its early lead in tokenized credit markets, but analysts remain divided on its ability to scale and navigate regulatory challenges.

Two major Wall Street banks have issued contrasting assessments as Figure seeks to expand its blockchain-based lending and capital markets platform beyond home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).

KBW Sees Strong Upside

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) initiated coverage of Figure with an “outperform” rating and a 12-month price target of $48.50, implying roughly 17.5% upside from current levels. KBW highlighted Figure’s dominant market share, estimating the firm controls 73% of private tokenized credit and 39% of all tokenized real-world assets.

Founded by former SoFi CEO Mike Cagney, Figure went public in September and has risen 12% since its IPO. Its core business tokenizes HELOCs, connecting borrowers and investors via a vertically integrated platform that includes loan origination, distribution, and a digital asset marketplace.

KBW noted the company’s technology is underutilized, with potential to expand into first-lien mortgages, personal loans, and third-party asset tokenization. Products like Figure Exchange could provide additional growth levers.

Bernstein Also Bullish

Bernstein offered a similar bullish take, also rating Figure as “outperform” with a $54 target. Analysts likened the firm’s approach to stablecoins in payments, noting that tokenization of traditional assets could make lending markets faster and more efficient.

BofA Takes a Cautious Stance

By contrast, Bank of America initiated coverage with a “neutral” rating and $41 price target, citing execution and regulatory risks. BofA emphasized Figure’s reliance on HELOCs, which still account for the bulk of profits and are not fully blockchain-native.

The bank sees growth potential in Figure Connect, a marketplace connecting lenders with capital providers, projecting it could drive 75% of revenue growth from 2024 to 2027. However, challenges remain, including onboarding large institutions, competition from fintech peers, and potential regulatory changes under the Truth in Lending Act.

Key Takeaways

While both KBW and BofA recognize Figure’s leadership in a relatively untapped corner of consumer lending, opinions diverge on whether its blockchain infrastructure can scale beyond niche applications. The split in price targets — $48.50 vs. $41 — reflects uncertainty over how quickly Figure can become a central player in broader fintech markets.