Ledn Chief Investment Officer John Glover, who accurately forecasted Bitcoin’s recent rally, is cautioning traders that a failure to break above the key $125,000 resistance could trigger the start of a bear market.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly touched record highs above $125,000 over the weekend, buoyed by renewed demand for U.S.-listed spot ETFs during the ongoing government shutdown and pro-stimulus remarks from Japan’s newly elected prime minister. However, momentum has cooled, with BTC slipping back to around $124,000 in the past 24 hours.

“The $125K level is now a decisive point for Bitcoin,” Glover said in an email outlining his Elliott Wave analysis. “A successful breakout could open the door to $145K by year-end or early next year. But repeated failures at this level would lend weight to the argument that a bear market is beginning.”

Glover remains broadly bullish, expecting Bitcoin to push through resistance and rally toward $145,000 before eventually entering a corrective phase.

Bullish Case Strengthens

Bitcoin has tested $120,000 three times since July, most recently over the weekend. While earlier attempts saw quick reversals, the latest move shows greater resilience, with prices holding above the threshold.

According to Singapore-based QCP Capital, this sustained strength suggests that non-institutional demand remains firm — a signal that upward momentum could extend beyond $125,000 in the near term.