Analysts Split on Coinbase Outlook as Q3 Earnings Loom

Barclays, JPMorgan, and Compass Point see solid Q3 upside in USDC yields and trading activity but diverge sharply on Base, Deribit, and long-term profitability.

Coinbase (COIN) is set to release third-quarter earnings on Thursday after market close, with Wall Street broadly expecting stronger revenue and profits despite mixed sentiment on its growth path.

According to FactSet, analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14, nearly quadruple last year’s $0.28, and revenue of $1.8 billion, up from $1.2 billion in Q3 2024.

However, while analysts at JPMorgan, Barclays, and Compass Point agree on robust momentum in blockchain rewards, USDC yields, and trading activity, they remain deeply divided over profitability trends and Coinbase’s ability to unlock value from its Layer-2 network, Base.

JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington remains the most optimistic, upgrading Coinbase to Overweight with a $404 price target for December 2026. His bullish case leans heavily on Coinbase’s potential launch of a Base token, which he estimates could achieve a $12–$34 billion market cap, with Coinbase retaining up to 40% of supply — adding an estimated $14–$42 per share in equity value.

Worthington also sees further upside from Coinbase’s plan to channel USDC yield rewards through its Coinbase One subscription service. He projects this could add roughly $1 per share in annual earnings, depending on user participation rates.

Barclays’ Benjamin Budish, maintaining an Equal Weight rating, also expects a strong quarter but adopts a more cautious tone. He forecasts adjusted EBITDA roughly 6% above consensus, driven by retail trading recovery and higher-than-expected USDC-related interest income.

Budish estimates total transaction revenue at $1.05 billion, exceeding Street expectations, and subscription and services revenue at $771 million, above management guidance. Still, he trimmed his price target to $361 from $365, citing broader valuation pressures across equity markets.

Compass Point’s Ed Engel, meanwhile, remains skeptical. While he acknowledges Coinbase will likely post modest beats, he reiterated a Sell rating, warning that the firm’s pivot toward lower-margin subscription revenues could weigh on profitability. Engel cautions that USDC and staking rewards dilute margins and that the firm’s Deribit acquisition, while strategic, could struggle against growing competition from regulated U.S. derivatives venues like CBOE.

Unlike JPMorgan, Engel made no mention of a potential Base token, signaling limited visibility or confidence in that catalyst.

One rare area of consensus: USDC’s rising importance. All three firms agree that Coinbase’s partnership with Circle (CRCL) has become a major earnings driver, though they differ on how much of the yield Coinbase can retain as it restructures rewards and expands premium services.

As Coinbase leans further into subscription products, on-chain infrastructure, and derivatives, Thursday’s report could determine not just how it performed in Q3 — but which analyst vision of its long-term trajectory proves more accurate.