Standard Chartered Analyst Sees Bitcoin Sell-Off Nearing End, Year-End Rally Possible

Bitcoin’s steep sell-off may be close to finishing, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered. Kendrick argues the recent pullback follows a recurring pattern and is likely nearing exhaustion.

Bitcoin BTC$84,537.42 fell below $90,000 on Tuesday, extending a drawdown that has erased nearly 30% from its October all-time high above $126,000. The latest decline marks the deepest pullback since U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs launched last year and has sparked debate over whether the cryptocurrency is entering a bear phase typical of its four-year cycle.

Kendrick described the sell-off as “a fast, painful version of the third decline over the past few years, nearly identical in magnitude,” in a note to clients Tuesday. He highlighted sentiment and valuation metrics now resetting to levels historically associated with market bottoms. One example is MicroStrategy’s modified net asset value (mNAV), which compares its bitcoin holdings to its share price and has dropped to parity at 1.0.

“Other metrics have collapsed to absolute zero levels,” Kendrick said, signaling seller exhaustion and capitulation. “This is enough to suggest the sell-off is over.” He added, “A rally into year-end is my base case.”

His outlook aligns with analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex, who noted that short-term holder realized losses are slowing and on-chain capitulation signals are emerging, both common markers of a market bottom.

Bitcoin rebounded to just under $93,000 on Tuesday, gaining 3.8% from overnight lows.