Market Odds of a December Fed Rate Cut Drop to 30%

Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have fallen sharply, with markets now assigning just a 30% probability that policymakers will lower rates by 25 basis points to a 3.5%-3.75% target range, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. That’s down from 50% both a day and a week earlier, and a steep decline from the 98% odds priced in a month ago.

The shift comes as confidence erodes amid an extended data blackout, which is complicating the Fed’s ability to assess economic conditions. The Labor Department confirmed Wednesday that it will not publish October’s employment report due to record delays stemming from the recently resolved government shutdown.

Adding to the uncertainty, the minutes from the Fed’s October meeting revealed significant internal debate over whether to pause or begin cutting rates, underscoring the lack of consensus among policymakers.

Bitcoin traded around $91,700 at press time, up 0.8% over the past 24 hours.