Bitcoin (BTC) options worth $7.8 billion are set to expire at the end of this month, with $6 billion of that total potentially expiring out of the money, according to data from Deribit. The cryptocurrency’s price is trading well above the so-called “max pain point,” prompting speculation that market makers may attempt to push the price lower to maximize their profits.

A significant portion of the options set to expire are put options, which allow holders to sell BTC at a predetermined price. As the expiration date approaches, prices often gravitate toward the max pain level, where option buyers face the highest losses, while market makers profit.

Deribit’s CEO, Luuk Strijers, stated, “The max pain price for this expiry stands at $98k, and we expect significant market movements as this date nears.” He also noted the impact of recent regulatory changes, including the removal of SAB 121, which now allows banks to hold bitcoin, potentially paving the way for increased institutional involvement. The growing speculation about a possible bitcoin strategic reserve announcement further heightens market anticipation.

“The upcoming expiry on Friday will see around 74,000 BTC options contracts expiring,” Strijers continued. “The total open interest for BTC options is currently at $28 billion, with $7.8 billion of that set to expire. Roughly 22.6% of these options are in-the-money (ITM), which could lead to delta hedging flows in the market. Meanwhile, the Deribit Volatility Index (DVOL) is at 60, which aligns with the volatility levels observed at the end of last year.”

The rising implied volatility (IV), as seen in the DVOL, reflects the heightened market activity around the upcoming expiration and bitcoin’s all-time high price levels.