Analysts at Dutch bank ING have highlighted the upside potential in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, currently at 4.09%, signaling caution for crypto bulls. Despite several weak economic readings, including November’s ADP employment report marking the third contraction in five months, the yield has remained resilient above 4%, in line with CoinDesk’s outlook.

A higher yield could tighten financial conditions, discourage risk-taking, and weigh on riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. “Treasuries love that 4% to 4.1% trading range. Temporary break below more likely. But break above has more legs,” ING said in a note to clients Thursday.

The 10-year yield, the benchmark for U.S. government borrowing costs, briefly fell 2 basis points to 4.06% after the ADP report but quickly rebounded—a move analysts noted as unusual, given that weak labor data and subdued inflation typically signal lower interest rates. Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month have risen to 87%, yet the 10-year yield has consistently traded between 4% and 4.20% since September, as CoinDesk highlighted earlier this week.

ING attributes this resilience to structural shifts in the U.S. economy, where productivity gains—partly driven by artificial intelligence—are becoming more influential than employment growth. “Treasuries have built a bit of resilience to the weak jobs narrative,” the analysts wrote. “Fewer net immigrants reduce the need for employment growth, while productivity growth, driven by AI and other factors, is steering economic expansion.”

Looking ahead, Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report could trigger volatility in the 10-year yield. ING expects that a softer report might push yields below 4%, though any dip is likely temporary. Conversely, a decisive break above 4.1% could signal a more structural shift, potentially shaping market trends well into 2026.