Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, remains a long-term bull on Bitcoin but isn’t particularly optimistic about the year ahead.

In recent months, some prominent voices in crypto have questioned Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle and its predictable boom-and-bust rhythm. Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood have argued that Bitcoin’s integration into the financial system—through ETFs, institutional adoption, and regulatory acceptance—makes it less likely to follow the patterns of previous cycles.

The four-year cycle, historically linked to Bitcoin’s halving events, has shaped the market since its early days. Each halving cuts the block reward for miners by 50%, creating a supply shock that typically triggers a significant price surge. After these bull runs, Bitcoin has historically experienced sharp declines of roughly 80% before gradually climbing toward the next halving.

Analysts often point to the post-halving bull runs of 2012, 2016, and 2020 as evidence of the pattern’s consistency. The 2024 halving appeared to follow suit, with Bitcoin climbing to a peak of $125,000 in October 2025 before entering its current bear market.

Timmer, an early advocate for Bitcoin among traditional finance professionals, sees no reason to believe the four-year cycle has ended.

“If we visually line up all the bull markets, the October high of $125,000 after 145 weeks of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect,” Timmer said earlier this week.

Looking ahead, he predicts that Bitcoin is entering a “winter” phase. Historically, post-bull bear markets have lasted about a year. “My sense is that 2026 could be a ‘year off’ for Bitcoin,” he added, noting that support levels are likely in the $65,000-$75,000 range.