Crypto markets are heading into a major structural reset, with billions of dollars worth of bitcoin and ether options set to expire on Deribit on Friday.

The so-called “Boxing Day” expiry — named after the Dec. 26 holiday observed in several countries — will see roughly $23.6 billion in bitcoin options and $3.8 billion in ether options roll off the exchange. Each options contract represents one BTC or one ETH, and the expiry accounts for more than 50% of Deribit’s total open interest.

According to the exchange, positioning around the expiry remains notably bullish. Deribit data show a put-call ratio of 0.38, indicating a heavy skew toward call options.

“The max pain level is near $96,000, while the put-call ratio reflects positioning tilted strongly toward calls and a bullish bias,” said Sidrah Fariq, Deribit’s global head of retail sales and business development, in a Telegram interview. The max pain price refers to the level at which options buyers collectively incur the greatest losses, while sellers — typically institutional players and market makers — stand to benefit the most.

Options contracts give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a future date. Call options reflect bullish expectations, while put options are used to hedge or profit from downside moves.

The ‘max pain’ debate

As expiry approaches, the max pain level is closely watched. Some traders argue it can act as a gravitational force, as professional participants adjust hedges in ways that may nudge spot prices toward that level. Under this framework, bitcoin could gravitate toward $96,000 and ether toward $3,100 by settlement.

However, the max pain theory remains controversial, with many market participants questioning its real-world impact on price behavior.

Bullish positioning meets holiday liquidity

The low put-call ratio implies that for every 100 call options outstanding, there are just 38 puts — underscoring how aggressively traders have leaned into upside exposure throughout the year. Current open interest is heavily concentrated in calls with strike prices between $100,000 and $116,000, while the $85,000 put is the most popular downside hedge.

Large expiries often trigger volatility as traders close positions or roll them into future maturities. Fariq noted that some put options in the $70,000 to $85,000 range are being rolled into January expiries.

“Whether traders let December puts expire or extend them will help determine if downside risk is merely year-end positioning or a broader structural reset,” she said.

Despite the size of the expiry, market conditions suggest a relatively orderly settlement. “The expiry falls on Boxing Day, volatility remains contained, and while upside exposure dominates, holiday-thinned liquidity and macro uncertainty are limiting strong directional conviction,” Fariq added.

Deribit’s bitcoin DVOL index — which tracks 30-day implied volatility — is currently around 45%, down from 63% on Nov. 21, when bitcoin briefly slid to nearly $80,000 on some exchanges. The pullback suggests easing market anxiety and diminishing expectations of outsized volatility tied to the expiry.