Grayscale predicts that 2026’s crypto market trajectory will be determined by regulation, not quantum concerns.

As 2025 draws to a close, investors are focused on two major questions for digital assets: when Washington will pass a comprehensive regulatory framework, and whether quantum computing poses an immediate threat to blockchain security, according to a Monday report from crypto asset manager Grayscale.

Grayscale analysts say one issue is set to shape markets in the near term, while the other is likely overblown. They expect a bipartisan crypto market structure bill to become law in 2026, marking a milestone for the industry. While details are still being negotiated, the direction is clear: lawmakers aim to apply traditional financial-market rules to crypto, covering registration, disclosure, clearer asset classifications, and insider safeguards.

A harmonized regulatory framework could boost adoption. Regulated firms may feel more comfortable holding digital assets, while clearer legal rules could encourage institutions to transact directly on blockchains — signaling the start of a more institutional era.

By contrast, concerns over quantum computing are real but overstated. While future quantum computers could theoretically derive private keys from public ones, Grayscale says the threat is distant and unlikely to impact near-term prices. Over time, blockchains, including Bitcoin, will need to upgrade to post-quantum cryptography, but these risks are not immediate.

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