VanEck has laid out a long-term framework suggesting that bitcoin could reach approximately $2.9 million by 2050. The research, published Thursday in a blog post titled “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions,” was authored by Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, and Patrick Bush, senior analyst for digital assets.

The analysis presents a base-case valuation model projecting an annualized return of about 15% over the next 25 years. Rather than a price target, VanEck frames it as a valuation exercise, focused on how bitcoin could be used if adoption grows well beyond its current role as a trading asset. The model evaluates value through adoption scenarios instead of traditional equity metrics.

Central to the base case is bitcoin’s potential as a settlement asset in global trade, possibly handling 5%–10% of international transaction volume, and gradual allocations by central banks as part of long-term reserve diversification. These assumptions represent a significant departure from today, when bitcoin plays a minimal role in trade settlement and is not held as a reserve by major central banks. VanEck notes that achieving this scenario would require regulatory clarity, political acceptance, and robust infrastructure.

The framework also emphasizes the volatility that could accompany such adoption. VanEck models long-term annualized volatility between 40% and 70%, similar to frontier markets. Even in a bear-case scenario, the firm still projects positive long-term returns, reflecting bitcoin’s growing structural relevance.

Macroeconomic factors are a key component of the analysis. VanEck notes that bitcoin historically aligns more closely with global liquidity trends than with equities or commodities, and its correlation with the U.S. dollar has weakened, indicating increasingly global drivers.

From a portfolio perspective, VanEck suggests small allocations of 1%–3% can enhance risk-adjusted returns in diversified portfolios. While not low-risk, bitcoin’s volatility can be mitigated at the portfolio level when position sizes are modest.