Cryptocurrency markets pushed higher Wednesday, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and strength in Asian equities, though debate continues over whether the Feb. 5 lows represent a durable bottom.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose back above $65,400 in early trade, extending what has become the first sustained bounce in weeks as broader risk appetite improved.

Earlier in the week, the total crypto market capitalization fell to about $2.19 trillion, nearly matching levels seen during the Feb. 5 crash. That retest has sharpened attention on whether a base is forming.

If the level holds, the market could be building a classic double-bottom structure, pointing to roughly 10% upside, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. But he warned that a failed rebound would likely signal the end of the recovery attempt and leave the market vulnerable to an additional 25% drop.

The double bottom is a traditional bullish reversal pattern that develops after a prolonged decline. It features two comparable lows separated by a rebound, forming a “W” shape on price charts. Confirmation typically requires a breakout above the midpoint high between the troughs.

The next key test is whether the rally can push beyond the brief recovery to approximately $2.47 trillion in market value seen around 10 days ago.

Altcoins gain as Asia rallies

Major tokens followed bitcoin’s advance. Ether climbed 4.2% over the past 24 hours, solana jumped 7%, and XRP rose 3%.

The move coincided with a 1.4% increase in MSCI’s Asia equity gauge to a record high, led by markets in South Korea and Taiwan. AI-focused chipmakers in the region reached fresh peaks ahead of earnings from Nvidia later Wednesday.

Currency markets added to the positive backdrop. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower following President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, where he reaffirmed plans for tariffs despite a Supreme Court ruling invalidating his global import tax proposal. He also floated the idea that tariffs could eventually replace the federal income tax system.

A weaker dollar has historically been supportive for bitcoin, though that relationship has been inconsistent throughout the current downturn.

Despite the rebound, confidence remains fragile. Bloomberg reported that analysts it surveyed described a “crisis of confidence” around bitcoin following its nearly 50% slide from record highs, citing a lack of clear new catalysts.

Kuptsikevich echoed that cautious tone, arguing that the market likely has not yet experienced full capitulation and warning that “real capitulation is still ahead.”