A contract tied to military action against a sovereign state has surged into the ranks of the most actively traded markets in the history of Polymarket, rivaling even major U.S. election wagers.

Within hours of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Polymarket evolved into a live geopolitical trading venue, with participants rapidly pricing outcomes tied to the unfolding conflict.

New markets appeared almost immediately, covering ceasefire deadlines, regime stability and succession scenarios. Traders are not only betting on whether tensions escalate but also forecasting the specific timing of a resolution, the possibility of U.S. ground forces entering Iran by March 7, and who might succeed Ali Khamenei.

The largest resolved contract to date — “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?” — settled at 100% after Iranian state television confirmed his death. The market drew $45 million in trading volume, placing it among the week’s busiest geopolitical contracts. The top account, “Curseaaaaaaa,” reportedly earned roughly $757,000 on a “yes” position, while four other traders posted six-figure gains.

For much of January and February, that contract traded between 25% and 50% as tensions simmered. Following confirmation, the probability instantly jumped to 100%.

Even larger is the still-active “US strikes Iran by…?” market, launched December 22. It has now accumulated $529 million in total volume, making it one of the biggest single contracts ever hosted on the platform. It dominates Polymarket’s “World” and “Geopolitics” categories and ranks fourth overall in “Politics,” behind only major 2024 U.S. election-related markets.

The February 28 date alone accounted for $89.6 million in trading. Every daily contract from February 28 through early March ultimately resolved to “yes,” rewarding traders who correctly anticipated the exact day of U.S. military action. Resolution criteria were narrowly defined: qualifying events required U.S. drone, missile or airstrikes on Iranian territory, excluding cyberattacks, interceptions and ground operations.

With the initial strikes complete, attention has shifted to forward-looking bets.

A ceasefire by March 2 is priced at just 4%, increasing to 15% by March 6. However, odds climb sharply to 61% by March 31 and 78% by April 30, suggesting traders expect a resolution within weeks rather than months — a thesis mirrored in bitcoin’s rebound toward $68,000.

The “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” contract now trades at 54%, up significantly from the low-20% range where it had lingered for months. In the “Next Supreme Leader of Iran” market, “position abolished” carries a 30% implied probability, indicating that bettors see a substantial chance the theocratic structure itself may not endure. Among named figures, former parliament speaker Ali Larijani leads at 21%.

Markets tied to potential U.S. ground involvement are also attracting liquidity. “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” trades at 19% with $207,000 in volume, while “US forces enter Iran by March 7” sits at 28% with approximately $2 million traded.

Polymarket’s always-on structure sets it apart from traditional financial markets. While equity and oil futures pause over the weekend, the platform allows users with crypto wallets to take real-time positions on geopolitical developments and observe immediate price discovery.

Some of the most controversial activity appears to have occurred before the first strikes were publicly known. Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps reported that six wallets collectively generated $1.2 million in profit by wagering on a U.S. strike by February 28 — the precise day operations began. Several wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack, focused specifically on the February 28 contract and accumulated “yes” shares shortly before the strikes. One wallet reportedly turned about $61,000 into more than $493,000, while another converted a $30,000 position into roughly $120,000 in gains.

Amid scrutiny, Polymarket added a statement to its Middle East markets asserting that prediction markets aim to harness collective intelligence to produce accurate and unbiased forecasts on consequential events. The company said discussions with people directly affected by the conflict reinforced its view that real-time market pricing can provide clarity beyond traditional television coverage and social media.

The platform has also launched a dedicated hub for Iran-related contracts, reflecting the surge in global trading interest tied to the unfolding crisis.