Bitcoin’s momentum weakened on Thursday after a strong start to the week, even as software stocks rallied, highlighting a growing divergence between two markets that have closely tracked each other in recent months.

Bitcoin fell nearly 2% over the past 24 hours to around $71,400 after giving up some of its earlier gains once U.S. trading began.

The decline came alongside broader weakness in equity markets as geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Oil prices surged about 5.3% to roughly $78.70 per barrel, reflecting concerns that the conflict could persist. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.7%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite performed somewhat better, declining just 0.4% as investors returned to software stocks that had previously been under pressure. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) climbed about 2% and has now advanced roughly 9% over the past five trading sessions.

The contrasting moves are notable because bitcoin and software stocks have largely moved together since October. Both markets dropped sharply amid investor concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting the software industry, and both rebounded from their lows in recent days.

Still, analysts caution that bitcoin’s recovery may not yet be secure. Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, said that even after bitcoin’s recent move toward $74,000, the asset continues to show a strong correlation with the IGV ETF.

Whether Thursday’s divergence will continue remains uncertain. Software stocks climbing while bitcoin retreats is not the scenario many crypto bulls hoped for, Hayes said, warning the recent rally could still turn out to be a temporary “dead cat bounce.”

Some traders may also be reducing exposure ahead of Friday’s closely watched U.S. employment report for February. Economic data in recent weeks has generally exceeded expectations, lowering the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will soon resume cutting interest rates.

Derivatives markets on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange now indicate an 88% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at both its upcoming meeting and again in April. Just a month earlier, the probability stood at 59%.

Despite the cautious tone, some market participants remain optimistic. Bryan Tan, a trader at Wintermute, said improving inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds—nearly $2 billion over the past week—along with stabilizing trading volumes have helped support the market.

Tan also noted that the muted reaction to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could leave room for bitcoin to revisit the $74,000 to $75,000 range.

Meanwhile, analysts at Bitfinex pointed to a “notable increase in spot market strength,” suggesting the latest rally has been driven primarily by genuine spot demand rather than leveraged speculation.

If that trend continues, they said the crypto market could see some relief in the weeks and months ahead.