Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $74,000 heading into the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting, following eight consecutive daily gains. Yet historical data from bitcoin lender Two Prime suggests caution, as FOMC meetings have frequently triggered short-term BTC weakness.

In 2025, bitcoin declined within 48 hours after seven of eight meetings, highlighting that volatility often stems from the event itself rather than policy outcomes.

Markets are pricing near certainty that the Fed will hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, with futures showing only one 25-basis-point cut expected by year-end, maintaining a “higher-for-longer” backdrop. Kevin Warsh is set to become Fed chair in June, adding further focus.

Rising oil prices near $100 a barrel and geopolitical risks could keep CPI inflation elevated, limiting the Fed’s flexibility. With bitcoin entering the meeting on a bullish streak, the main risk is a classic “sell the news” reaction.