Bitcoin Nears “Buy Zone,” but Bottom Not Yet Confirmed

Bitcoin is trading around $67,500, drawing attention as a potential buying opportunity, yet on-chain data suggests the market hasn’t hit the conditions that historically mark a cycle bottom.

CryptoQuant data shows bitcoin’s realized price—the network’s average cost basis—at $54,286, while spot trades at $68,774. That 21% premium indicates the average holder remains in profit. By comparison, the 2022 bear market and the 2020 COVID crash saw spot dip below realized, creating classic accumulation zones where the network was largely underwater. To reach realized today, bitcoin would need to drop roughly 20% to $54,000.

The gap between spot and realized has compressed rapidly, from 120% in late 2024 to 21% today, one of the fastest approaches outside of outright crashes. CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen described current levels as an “accumulation zone,” though historically such zones required spot at or below realized.

Other signals suggest caution: the Coinbase Premium Index has returned to negative territory, reflecting weakening institutional demand.

Despite this, bitcoin has held the $65,000–$70,000 range amid geopolitical tension, and ETF inflows of over $1 billion in March indicate active buying. Still, on-chain data shows the market has not yet experienced the broad capitulation that typically signals a cycle bottom.