Brazil’s primary exchange, B3, is preparing to introduce a new class of derivatives that allow investors to trade on the probability of future outcomes, signaling a move toward regulated prediction-style markets.

Beginning April 27, B3 will roll out six “Event Contracts” linked to assets such as bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and the Ibovespa index. Similar in structure to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, these contracts are priced up to 100 reais (around $19), with each price representing the market’s implied probability of a specific event.

The products fall under the oversight of Brazil’s securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), and are limited to professional investors. Participation is restricted to those with at least 10 million reais ($1.9 million) in assets or those holding CVM certification.

The initial lineup includes contracts tied to both spot and mini futures movements in bitcoin, the dollar, and the Ibovespa. Like other event-based instruments, they offer fixed payouts and clearly defined risk, with all positions settled in cash rather than through delivery of the underlying assets.

Luiz Masagão, B3’s Vice President of Products and Clients, said the launch is part of a broader effort to modernize Brazil’s derivatives landscape. He noted that the exchange has already introduced products linked to central bank decisions and has been closely tracking the rapid growth of prediction markets globally.

Alongside this initiative, B3 is expanding its digital asset ambitions. The exchange disclosed late last year that it is developing a tokenization platform and a stablecoin, both expected to go live this year.

The introduction of Event Contracts marks Brazil’s first federally regulated entry into the prediction market space, which has so far operated largely in a regulatory gray area. Local platforms such as Prévias and Palpitada have gained traction domestically, while U.S.-based Kalshi recently partnered with XP International, one of Brazil’s largest brokerages, to offer contracts tied to Brazilian economic events.

Globally, prediction markets are experiencing rapid growth. Total notional volume is nearing $160 billion, with more than 3 million users, according to data from Dune Analytics. Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the sector, accounting for the majority of trading activity.

Traditional financial institutions are also stepping in. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has increased its investment in Polymarket, bringing its total exposure close to $2 billion.

However, regulatory clarity remains a key issue. In Brazil, it is still unclear whether oversight of prediction markets will ultimately fall under the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance—highlighting ongoing uncertainty in how these markets will be governed