The debate over whether bitcoin has exited its latest downturn is gaining momentum, as bullish calls from industry leaders clash with more cautious market views.

Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (MSTR), declared that the “crypto winter is over” after bitcoin held above $78,000, a level first reached earlier this week. The comment, shared on X alongside a stylized image, followed Strategy’s latest purchase of 13,927 BTC, lifting its total holdings to 780,897.

Still, not everyone is convinced the market has fully turned.

“Even if the winter is over for bitcoin—which I question—it remains very cold for altcoins,” said Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam.

Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics and a former eToro analyst, takes a different view altogether. He argues that recent market conditions do not qualify as a crypto winter, but rather a correction within a longer-term uptrend.

“What we’ve seen is a notable pullback, not a full-scale winter,” Greenspan said.

Despite that distinction, Greenspan agrees with the broader implication of Saylor’s stance—that bitcoin may have already established a bottom and could move higher from here.

Analysts point to Strategy’s continued accumulation as evidence of a structural shift in the market, with corporate treasuries playing an increasingly influential role in shaping bitcoin demand.

However, Greenspan believes the next major phase will be driven by sovereign actors rather than institutions alone.

“Institutional adoption will help propel the next move, but the real catalyst is likely to be nation-state adoption,” he said.

Greenspan outlined three previous adoption waves: early adopters in 2013, the retail boom of 2017, and the institutional phase that began in 2021. The next cycle, he argues, will be defined by governments entering the market.

“The fourth major wave—nation-state adoption—could arrive sooner than expected, particularly given shifting policy signals in the U.S.,” he added.

He also suggested that central banks may eventually treat bitcoin as a reserve asset, similar to gold, to support financial stability.

Early signs of this shift are already emerging. The U.S. is exploring the concept of a strategic bitcoin reserve and is estimated to hold roughly 300,000 BTC. El Salvador continues to accumulate bitcoin, while China and the U.K. also control notable holdings. At the regional level, public entities such as pension funds in Wisconsin and New Jersey have begun allocating exposure to the asset.

Taken together, these developments indicate that bitcoin may be entering a new phase—one increasingly shaped by sovereign participation alongside institutional demand.