A U.S.–Iran agreement pushed oil lower and supported equity markets, but Bitcoin has shown a more restrained response, with ETF outflows only recently pausing after a sustained stretch of redemptions. Traders say many participants are waiting for the deal to be formally signed before fully pricing in any lasting impact.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly traded above $67,000 late Monday before slipping back under $66,000, underscoring its more cautious reaction compared with traditional risk assets that rallied on the Iran peace developments.

BTC was changing hands near $65,845 on Tuesday, up 0.3% over 24 hours and 4.8% on the week, according to CoinDesk data. It reached an intraday high of $67,217 before fading. Ether outperformed with a 2.8% gain to $1,764, while Solana rose 3.2% to $73. XRP added 3.2% to $1.22, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE led major tokens with a 6.3% jump to $69.

Macro markets reacted more decisively. A memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, signed electronically by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, helped lift sentiment, with Trump also stating that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen on Friday.

Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping below $83 per barrel after its steepest decline in over two weeks. Equities rallied, with the S&P 500 up 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 gaining 3.1% on Monday.

Despite the risk-on backdrop, Bitcoin lagged broader market moves.

“Oil dropped more than 4% and Asian equities jumped more than 3% on the ceasefire, but BTC barely moved,” said Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis. He described the move as a tentative relief rally rather than a confirmed shift into sustained crypto risk appetite.

The hesitation reflects previous false starts in the market. Bitcoin has previously given back gains after earlier Iran-related relief rallies, including following an April ceasefire attempt and again after June 9 developments that later unraveled. Adding to caution, Trump also warned the agreement could still collapse if Iran does not shut down its nuclear program.

Xue added that traders are likely waiting for the scheduled June 19 signing in Switzerland before treating the agreement as durable.

ETF flows also point to lingering caution. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have only just ended a four-week streak of outflows totaling about $5.4 billion, including a record weekly withdrawal of roughly $3.4 billion. A sustained return of inflows has yet to materialize, though continued movement of coins into cold storage suggests longer-term holders remain committed.

Not all market participants are cautious.

“It’s a constructive setup for risk assets, including crypto,” said Chris Perkins, incoming head of Franklin Crypto at Franklin Templeton. He noted that improving macro conditions, along with the recent SpaceX IPO, could help bring retail investors back into digital assets.

Perkins also highlighted the CLARITY Act, which would define whether digital assets are classified as securities or commodities, saying markets currently view its passage as a close call but potentially meaningful for institutional adoption.

Attention now turns to upcoming central bank decisions. The Bank of Japan recently raised rates to 1%, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold steady, and the Federal Reserve is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday.

For Bitcoin—often viewed as a high-beta risk asset—the Fed decision and Friday’s Iran signing are seen as the key catalysts that will determine whether the current rebound continues or fades like prior attempts.