A stronger U.S. dollar and a more hawkish Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh are expected to keep crypto markets under pressure through the summer.

Bitcoin (BTC) likely has additional downside ahead before the current bear phase reaches its end, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen.

Thielen’s view is anchored in the recent strength of the dollar, which has historically acted as a drag on bitcoin. The Fed’s shift toward tighter policy has reinforced this dynamic, with markets increasingly considering the possibility of a rate hike rather than a cut—supporting the dollar while weighing on risk assets.

That said, Thielen does not expect the downturn to persist for long.

Three indicators—global liquidity trends, the macro calendar, and bitcoin’s seasonal behavior—point to a potential bottom forming between late August and October.

A model tracking changes in global liquidity, which previously signaled a buying opportunity in March and an exit in April, now identifies late August as the next key inflection point. Seasonal trends also show that September has historically been weak for bitcoin, often followed by stronger performance in October.

This timing aligns with key macro events, including Federal Reserve meetings in September and October, U.S. midterm elections, and the Treasury’s quarterly refinancing announcement in early November.

Taken together, Thielen expects bitcoin to drop below $60,000 and potentially test $55,000 before establishing a cycle low.

“The takeaway is patience in the near term, with focus shifting to late August,” he said.