The Bitcoin advocate argued that his call for a market bottom is based on a shift in the traditional four-year halving cycle, even as many analysts continue to anticipate further downside.

“The Bitcoin bottom is already in,” Samson Mow said in a post on X on Sunday, suggesting that the usual four-year halving cycle has sped up.

“I find it fascinating how some people are convinced the bottom will arrive in four months because of ‘cycles,’” said Mow, who is widely known for his $1 million Bitcoin prediction, his involvement in El Salvador’s Bitcoin initiatives, and his advocacy for nation-state adoption of Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin reached an all-time high 37 days before the halving. So even if you believe in cycles, it would make sense to conclude that they’ve accelerated. The bottom is in,” added Mow, the former chief strategy officer at Blockstream.

Mow explained that Bitcoin hitting a record high 37 days ahead of the April 2024 halving indicates that the traditional four-year cycle may no longer apply in the same way, making past cycle comparisons less dependable.

He is not alone in this view. After Bitcoin surged to a then-record high ahead of the April 2024 halving, several analysts suggested that rising institutional demand—particularly following the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—could be reshaping the historical halving cycle. However, others caution that it is still too early to confirm a structural shift.

$55,000 Seen as More Likely Bottom

Not all analysts agree with Mow. Some believe Bitcoin is near a bottom, while others expect further declines, though they rely on different models and indicators.

CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole recently noted that if one is wondering how much lower Bitcoin could fall, a historically reliable contrarian indicator suggests the downside may be limited.

This indicator examines Bitcoin’s 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. The 50-week average—roughly representing a year—is close to crossing below the 100-week average, forming a “bear cross.” Historically, such signals have often coincided with market bottoms, leading some analysts to interpret the pattern as bullish.

Meanwhile, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes Bitcoin is more likely to bottom around $55,000, potentially between August and October. In contrast, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has taken a more bearish stance, predicting a drop to around $40,000 within the next six months.

CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten also suggested that Bitcoin may need to fall an additional 15% or more before reaching a bottom. His view is based on the long-term 200-week moving average.

“With Bitcoin testing its 200-week moving average, on-chain data indicates that the $50,000 to $54,000 range could become a key battleground,” he wrote.

Van Straten added that in every major bear market since 2011, Bitcoin has eventually traded below its realized price before forming a cycle bottom. “So far, that hasn’t happened in this cycle,” he noted.