Economist says weak jobs data may be misleading

RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas argued that investors and the Federal Reserve should not overreact to the latest employment figures, saying seasonal adjustment issues at the Bureau of Labor Statistics may have distorted the headline results.

He noted that a sharp decline in leisure and hospitality jobs likely contributed to the weakness, potentially reflecting the end of World Cup-related activity rather than a broad labor market downturn.

According to Brusuelas, the jobs report is unlikely to significantly influence the Fed’s policy path. He said markets and policymakers should instead focus on upcoming inflation data for a more accurate view of economic conditions.

U.S. employment falls unexpectedly in July

The U.S. labor market weakened again in July, with payrolls declining for a second consecutive month and potentially giving the Federal Reserve additional flexibility on interest rates despite continued inflation concerns.

The latest Nonfarm Payrolls report from the Labor Department showed that the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, falling well short of economists’ expectations for an 80,000-job increase. The result also marked a slowdown from June’s revised gain of 20,000 jobs, which was previously reported as 57,000.

Job growth for May was revised lower as well, with payroll gains reduced to 63,000 from the original estimate of 129,000.

The previous monthly decline in employment occurred in February, when the economy shed 156,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, beating forecasts of 4.2% and improving from June’s 4.2%.

Markets responded quickly after the data release. U.S. stock futures moved higher, Treasury yields declined, and precious metals gained strength, with gold rising around 3% and silver climbing close to 6%. Bitcoin saw limited movement, trading slightly above $65,000.

Wage growth also came in weaker than expected. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% in July, below forecasts for a 0.3% increase and June’s 0.3% gain. Annual wage growth slowed to 3.2%, compared with expectations of 3.5% and June’s 3.4%.

Before the report, traders were divided over whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September. CME FedWatch data showed a 55% probability of a rate hike before the release, but that figure declined to 46% after the weaker employment figures.

Bank of America says investor optimism has reached extreme levels

Bank of America’s bull-and-bear sentiment indicator has climbed to its highest point since 2021, when pandemic-era stimulus fueled strong market enthusiasm.

The bank’s analysts, led by Michael Hartnett, advised investors to reduce exposure to risk assets and shift toward defensive holdings, longer-duration investments, and the U.S. dollar as the indicator rose to 9.7 from 9.4, nearing its maximum reading of 10.

However, crypto markets have not experienced the same level of optimism seen during 2021. While traditional markets continue reaching record highs, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain below previous peaks.

Bitcoin miners transfer $37 million in BTC to NYDIG

Bitcoin mining companies moved more than $37 million worth of BTC to NYDIG, a transaction that could indicate preparations for potential selling activity.

However, because NYDIG also offers custody and financing services, the transfers may simply reflect operational movements rather than an intention to sell.

According to Lookonchain data, MARA Holdings transferred 200 BTC worth approximately $12.86 million, while Riot Platforms moved 381 BTC valued at about $24.51 million to NYDIG.

MetaMask launches AI-driven crypto wallet

MetaMask has introduced its Agent Wallet, a product designed to let users deploy AI agents for crypto tasks such as tracking markets, executing swaps, and managing blockchain transactions.

The wallet supports integrations with AI tools including Claude Code, Codex, and Cursor. Users can set spending limits, choose which protocols agents can access, and select between a more secure Guard Mode or a more flexible Beast Mode.

MetaMask said the wallet supports HyperLiquid and several Ethereum-compatible networks while offering transaction simulations, security checks, and MEV protection before trades are completed.

Precious metals rally as investors move away from AI stocks

Gold and silver continued their upward trend on Friday as investors shifted toward traditional safe-haven assets.

Gold gained another 1% to trade near $4,300 per ounce, while silver climbed above $64 after advancing more than 4% over 24 hours.

The move has been linked to concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally, prompting some investors to rotate away from AI-related equities.

Fidelity strategist warns rising Treasury yields could pressure markets

Fidelity global macro director Jurrien Timmer warned that rising 10-year Treasury yields above 4.5% could create challenges for financial markets.

Timmer said the benchmark yield had moved into a concerning range at 4.73%, pointing to historical periods where elevated long-term yields have negatively affected asset performance.

He suggested the increase may be driven by several factors, including strong funding demand from AI companies, doubts over the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, and greater uncertainty caused by reduced central bank transparency.

Higher yields typically weigh on risk assets, including technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin remains near $64,350 as investors await jobs data

Bitcoin traded around $64,350 on Friday, remaining largely unchanged for the week as investors waited for the latest U.S. employment figures. Ether stayed near $1,903, while other major cryptocurrencies showed little movement.

Market sentiment weakened slightly after oil prices rose following renewed tensions involving Iran and shipping activity around the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher crude prices could increase inflation concerns, potentially encouraging the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter monetary policy. Treasury yields moved higher, while the U.S. dollar posted its strongest daily performance in two weeks.

For Bitcoin, the broader macro environment remains the key driver. A weaker jobs report could strengthen expectations for Fed easing and support risk assets, while stronger employment data combined with higher oil prices could reinforce a more restrictive policy outlook.