$5 Billion in Bitcoin Options Set to Expire—Could Max Pain Drive Prices Higher?

This Friday, over $5 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) options contracts will expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC, creating a potential catalyst for market volatility.

Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $90,000 has left most call options out-of-the-money (OTM), meaning they are unlikely to be exercised. Meanwhile, put options (bearish bets) have gained value, reflecting the recent market downturn.

Key Expiry Data:

• 78% of contracts ($3.9B) are OTM, meaning they will expire worthless.
• Nearly all call options are OTM as BTC’s price has declined sharply.
• $1.1 billion (22%) remains in-the-money (ITM), mostly put options with strike prices above the current spot price.

The Max Pain Effect

Market participants are also eyeing max pain, the price level where the largest number of options expire worthless, benefiting options sellers. Currently, max pain sits at $98,000—nearly $10,000 above Bitcoin’s spot price.

Historically, large expiries near significant max pain levels have led to increased volatility as traders attempt to push BTC closer to this target.

“With a massive $5 billion in notional value expiring, market makers have an incentive to influence BTC’s price action toward $98,000. Expect volatility and potential price movement as the expiry approaches,” PowerTrade noted on X.

As the deadline nears, traders will be watching closely to see whether Bitcoin’s price drifts toward max pain or continues its downward trajectory