Bitcoin held above $63,000 on Monday as the cryptocurrency moved higher alongside U.S. stocks, but continued spot ETF outflows and fading hopes for major crypto legislation kept investors cautious.

BTC rose about 0.8% from midnight UTC, recovering part of last week’s losses. In the absence of a clear catalyst, Bitcoin appeared to be following the broader equity market, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.5% at their strongest level since July 2.

The move higher came despite another weak week for Bitcoin ETFs. U.S. spot Bitcoin products saw roughly $390 million in net withdrawals last week, including three consecutive sessions of outflows, marking the first such stretch since the end of July. It was also the biggest weekly outflow in six weeks.

Ether ETFs recorded relatively little activity, while Solana ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows since mid-May.

Clarity Act outlook dims

The outlook for the Clarity Act has weakened further. Galaxy Research’s head of research, Alex Thorn, cut his estimate on Aug. 14 for the legislation to become law in 2026 to about 10%. Prediction markets currently place the probability closer to 17%.

The Senate is scheduled to hold a cloture vote on Sept. 15 after returning from recess, although market participants increasingly believe the vote could be delayed again.

Futures market signals

Taker positioning is balanced: The 24-hour long-to-short volume ratio among takers remains close to neutral, extending the pattern observed on Friday. Takers execute trades against existing orders, removing liquidity from the order book.

Leverage poses a volatility risk: Bitcoin’s futures open interest is approximately $48 billion, nearly twice its 24-hour trading volume. XRP futures have a similar imbalance. A large liquidation event could therefore encounter limited liquidity and lead to sharper-than-usual price movements.

BTC open interest retreats: Bitcoin futures OI has declined to around 750,000 BTC from 760,000 BTC on Friday. Since April, moves above 750,000 BTC have frequently failed to hold. XRP is showing stronger positioning, with futures OI remaining near a 10-month high, while ETH and SOL futures remain relatively lightly positioned.

CC attracts short sellers: Canton Network’s CC token fell more than 1.5% over the past day, ranking among the weakest performers in the top 100 cryptocurrencies. Futures OI simultaneously increased by more than 5%, a combination that typically points to growing short exposure. Negative perpetual funding and a negative OI-adjusted CVD also indicate bearish pressure.

ZEC sees stronger bullish positioning: Zcash has also experienced rising OI, but its market indicators are more positive. A positive 24-hour CVD shows that buyers are aggressively entering positions through market orders. Its funding rate has reached +10%, suggesting growing demand for longs.

Volatility remains subdued: Thirty-day implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ether remains close to yearly lows, reflecting limited demand for options-based protection. The traditional-market VIX is also at its lowest level since January.

Options favor calls: Deribit data indicates that traders are showing greater demand for BTC and ETH calls in the near term, signaling a bullish bias. The volatility term structure also remains calm ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.

Trading activity is split: Both BTC calls and puts appear among the five most-traded instruments over the last 24 hours. Ether options show a similar distribution.

Altcoin market

PUMP rose 7.8% from midnight UTC, while its daily trading volume increased 55% to $90 million.

ZEC climbed 4.7% to $508, extending the recent rally in privacy tokens after Monero posted strong gains last week.

MORPHO advanced 5% to $2.07, recovering some of Friday’s losses and outperforming other major DeFi assets.

HYPE gained 3.53% to $59.08 and is roughly 2% higher for the week.

FET declined 1.56% to $0.1196, making it one of the weaker altcoins as enthusiasm around AI-linked tokens cooled.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index rose to 46/100 from 36/100 on Aug. 7, suggesting sentiment toward altcoins is gradually improving. Still, the Fear and Greed Index remains at 38/100, keeping the overall market in fear territory.