Bitcoin could face heightened volatility as markets prepare for monetary-policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, with traders closely tracking the U.S.-Japan rate gap, yen movements and carry-trade positioning.

The two central banks are scheduled to deliver their decisions only days apart, starting with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon. Futures markets were showing more than an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike. The compressed schedule has increased attention on whether expectations for tighter policy in the U.S. and Japan are moving toward greater convergence.

Expectations for a Fed increase have changed sharply since late August. The implied probability climbed from around 50% to as high as 92%. According to the report, the repricing took place as the yen recorded a monthly gain against the dollar, adding another factor to the market backdrop before the Fed announcement and the BOJ meeting two days later.

Rather than focusing on each decision independently, traders are assessing what the two moves could mean together. If both central banks raise rates, the difference between U.S. and Japanese rates could narrow for the first time in years. Investors are watching whether that change affects carry trades and broader risk appetite as the fourth quarter approaches.

The meetings also come during a potentially significant period for global monetary policy. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and BOJ could all tighten policy during the same period for the first time since 2006. This has raised broader questions about whether major economies are moving toward more closely aligned rate paths.

For Bitcoin and other risk assets, the focus is on the uncertainty surrounding those paths rather than a specific price target. Market participants are monitoring the U.S.-Japan rate differential, the yen and carry-trade adjustments for clues about the potential market impact.

What the Fed and BOJ Decisions Could Mean for Bitcoin

The Federal Open Market Committee is holding its Sept. 15-16 meeting and is expected to publish an updated Summary of Economic Projections, according to the Fed’s meeting calendar. Traders will examine the dot plot for indications of future U.S. rates, while potential dissenting votes at the BOJ could provide additional clues about Japan’s policy direction.

BOJ expectations have been relatively clear. A CNBC survey of 18 economists conducted from Sept. 9 to 14 found that 89% expected a 25-basis-point increase to 1.25%, which the report described as a fresh three-decade high. The economists pointed to accelerating inflation, stronger wage growth and pressure from Washington.

There is less consensus about the pace of subsequent hikes. Jesper Koll, expert director at Monex Group, expected the BOJ to deliver a 50-basis-point increase. Carlos Casanova, senior economist for Asia at Union Bancaire Privée, instead predicted no change, saying the available data did not yet support a faster tightening cycle.

The Fed’s Wednesday announcement will be the first major test for markets. Investors will compare the updated dot plot with futures pricing to determine whether expectations for U.S. rates have shifted and whether the rate gap with Japan is expected to narrow.

Attention will then turn to the BOJ on Friday, including any dissenting votes. Political developments are another factor. Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, told CNBC that the Trump administration had effectively restricted the ability of a potential Takaichi administration to prevent the BOJ from raising rates.

The yen will offer another key indication of market sentiment. Around 61% of respondents in the CNBC survey expected the currency to trade between 155 and 160 per dollar over the next month.

The direction of the yen and any repositioning in carry trades could provide a clearer picture of how markets are responding to the prospect of tighter policy from both central banks. Those shifts could also influence Bitcoin and other assets sensitive to global liquidity and risk appetite.