Bitcoin is heading toward a September gain of about 10%, putting it on course for a three-month winning streak that has occurred just once before, in 2012.

Bitcoin gained 4.8% in July and followed that with a 25.2% advance in August, according to CoinDesk data. It was trading around $86,140 in September, up 10.9% for the month at the time of writing.

The last time Bitcoin recorded three consecutive monthly gains from July through September was in 2012. The cryptocurrency rose 41.0% in July, 6.4% in August and 24.4% in September that year.

The winning run ended the following month as Bitcoin fell 9.7% in October. The decline took the price to $10.17 on Oct. 26. From there, Bitcoin began a 165-day rally that pushed it to $230 by April 2013, a gain of more than 2,000%, based on CoinDesk’s analysis of daily prices.

That historical sequence provides an interesting comparison, but it does not establish that Bitcoin will follow the same path in 2026. Bitcoin has traded since at least late 2010, yet the July-through-September winning pattern has appeared only once, leaving a very limited sample from which to draw conclusions.

The pattern is nevertheless notable given the scale of the rally that followed it in 2012 and Bitcoin’s broader four-year market cycle. Some cycle models indicate that a potentially bullish phase could emerge around October or November, although these models are approximate and do not operate according to fixed dates.

Bitcoin’s market structure has also changed dramatically since 2012. At that time, the asset was trading near $10 with limited liquidity, allowing relatively small amounts of buying to have a substantial impact on price.

The market is now worth trillions of dollars and includes institutional investors, spot ETFs and deep derivatives markets. Options, futures and basis trades also provide investors with more ways to express views and manage risk. As a result, reproducing the percentage gains seen during Bitcoin’s early years would require considerably more capital.

“Bitcoin now belongs to a global asset class with institutional ownership. Spot ETFs have created a regulated channel for investment. Derivatives markets have changed how risk is transferred. The rally of more than 2,000% that followed the 2012 sequence cannot become a reasonable expectation for 2026,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange.

Subburaj said the biggest difference is the composition of the market and the size of the capital involved.

“The real change is therefore one of market structure. Bitcoin’s rise in 2012 began in a market that could be transformed by a small pool of buyers. The case in 2026 depends on whether large pools of capital continue allocating after the easiest gains have been made,” he said.

Institutional participation can be seen in the flows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. SoSoValue data shows the funds have attracted more than $5.5 billion since August.

“The durability of those allocations matters more,” Subburaj said.

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle

Nansen Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said historical patterns can provide clues without necessarily producing identical outcomes.

“We always look for patterns, and Bitcoin has, for better or worse, continued to adhere to the 4-year cycle. Sometimes slightly late, sometimes early, so it is not unsurprising that we see certain patterns play out again and again (to a certain degree, of course),” Sondergaard told CoinDesk.

He said the 2012 pattern does not mean October must produce losses, although a pullback following Bitcoin’s recent advance would not be unexpected.

“It is not a guarantee that we will now see a red October, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see some drawback (not a wild new low) but some drawback in the coming weeks given how the market has been performing,” Sondergaard said.

Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, said investors should focus more on the forces behind the current rally than on the historical calendar setup. She highlighted ETF demand as a key factor that could continue absorbing Bitcoin supply during the fourth quarter, even if the recent short squeeze loses momentum.

Macro conditions could still alter that picture, Zhang added.

“The main counterweight remains macro conditions, with the Fed raising rates to 3.75%–4.00% and signaling that another hike could follow this year. Whether spot inflows remain positive after the squeeze fades will therefore be a more useful signal of durability than the calendar pattern itself,” Zhang said.