Bitcoin’s historical performance suggests that rising bond yields have not had a consistent long-term impact on the cryptocurrency, although sudden increases in bond-market volatility can still weigh on BTC over shorter periods.

Higher global yields are commonly viewed as a negative for bitcoin because they increase the relative appeal of interest-bearing assets. Yet data across bitcoin’s history shows that its price has generally maintained little connection with movements in government bond yields.

Bond yields moved sharply into focus Wednesday as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to above 5.13%, its highest level since 2007. Yields also moved higher across several major international markets.

The conventional view is that rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding assets such as bitcoin and gold, which do not generate regular income. Investors may therefore shift funds toward bonds as their returns become more attractive.

Bitcoin’s actual correlation with yields, however, remains close to zero.

CoinDesk’s analysis found that bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with daily changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was -0.18. The figure was -0.06 over 180 days and -0.03 over one year. BTC has likewise shown little correlation with bond yields in other major economies.

Bitcoin’s Diversification Characteristics

The weak relationship between bitcoin and government bond yields can give investors an asset with different behavior from traditional rate-sensitive investments.

Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, told CoinDesk that bitcoin’s near-zero correlation with Treasury yields can be considered a portfolio advantage. She said the relationship indicates BTC is not simply behaving as a duration or interest-rate asset. Recent data put the 90-day correlation near -0.17, with the relationship occasionally moving even closer to zero.

Bitcoin’s long-term gains have also occurred alongside substantial increases in bond yields. BTC has risen 191% since 2021 and reached a record $126,000 last October. During that period, 10-year yields increased by more than 500 basis points in France and the U.K. and by more than 400 basis points in the U.S., Australia, Germany and Italy.

Japan’s 10-year yield rose 296 basis points and Switzerland’s gained 105 basis points. China’s yields declined as the country continued to deal with deflationary conditions.

Volatility Could Still Trigger a Pullback

Bitcoin’s limited correlation with yield levels does not eliminate its exposure to turmoil in bond markets. A rapid increase in bond volatility can tighten financial conditions and push investors away from riskier assets.

Treasury-market volatility can raise borrowing costs, tighten credit and encourage broader risk reduction. Because U.S. government debt plays a central role in global finance, significant market disruptions can spread beyond bonds.

The MOVE Index, which measures expected volatility in Treasury securities, climbed 21% to 95 points Wednesday, its highest level since April 1. Bitcoin fell from roughly $87,200 to $83,500 during the same session. The decline may also have reflected profit-taking after BTC’s recent strong advance.

Continued or accelerating Treasury volatility could therefore put additional pressure on bitcoin even if yield levels themselves remain weakly correlated with its long-term performance.

Strong U.S. Activity Drives Yields Higher

Wednesday’s rise in yields followed stronger U.S. economic data rather than a fresh deterioration in fiscal concerns.

S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI increased to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, reaching its highest point since July 2021. The reading showed business activity growing at its fastest rate in more than five years while inflationary pressure was also building.

The figures strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue tightening monetary policy after its 25-basis-point rate increase in September. Both two-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose following the report.

The move was also visible in overseas bond markets. France’s yield rose more than the U.S. 10-year yield on Wednesday, while the U.K. recorded an increase nearly as large.

Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the IIF, said Italy and Greece experienced similar pressure. Brooks wrote in a Wednesday Substack post that strong U.S. economic data was followed by increased concern around countries with fiscal vulnerabilities.

Markets have been scrutinizing high-debt economies for some time, Brooks said. Statista data showed Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio above 200% at the end of 2025, compared with 123.8% for the U.S., 115% for France, 102% for the U.K. and 100% for China.

Switzerland’s federal debt was considerably lower at 16% of GDP. Its relatively moderate rise in 10-year yields and low debt burden have helped fuel views among some analysts that the Swiss franc is becoming a haven currency and could increasingly replace the Japanese yen as a preferred carry currency.

For bitcoin, the broader data suggests that bond-market forces such as fiscal concerns, economic growth and inflation can affect yields and fiat currencies without producing a consistent long-term effect on BTC prices.