Bitcoin has moved back above a key one-year trend indicator, but AltcoinPro Research says the cryptocurrency’s ability to remain above its 200-day moving average could matter more than the latest breakout.

The latest move came on Sept. 22, when bitcoin climbed above its 365-day simple moving average near $80,900. It was the first time in 310 days that bitcoin had reclaimed the level, according to Altcoin Pro founders Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku.

Altcoin Pro’s review of historical data found that bitcoin traded higher 12 months later in all five previous cases where it recovered the 365-day average after spending at least 90 days below it. The gains following those breakouts ranged from around 59% to more than 1,400%.

The largest increase occurred in 2012, when bitcoin was still a relatively small and developing asset.

The analysts noted that the historical pattern does not guarantee a similar outcome this time. When shorter periods below the 365-day average were included, two breakouts failed. Bitcoin fell roughly 27% within 90 days of the July 2018 breakout and around 59% after the March 2022 signal.

Horst said the latest move is encouraging, particularly after bitcoin remained below the indicator for 310 days, but the cryptocurrency needs to hold above it for the signal to gain more significance.

Despite focusing on the 365-day breakout, Horst and Zhuleku said they are paying closer attention to the 200-day average when assessing bitcoin’s longer-term direction.

AltcoinPro’s calculations placed the 200-day moving average at approximately $70,800. Bitcoin was trading about 19% above that level before its recent 36-hour pullback.

The 365-day average, meanwhile, remained in a declining trend and was still much closer to bitcoin’s current market price.

The difference reflects the way the two indicators respond to market movements. A 200-day moving average adjusts more quickly to recent price changes, while the 365-day average incorporates a longer history and therefore moves more slowly.

The Altcoin Pro founders said the 365-day indicator is effectively reflecting market conditions from further in the past, while the 200-day average responds roughly three months sooner. That lag can be significant in bitcoin’s fast-moving market.

Bitcoin also recorded a golden cross on Sept. 8, when its 50-day moving average climbed above the 200-day average. Although the pattern is widely monitored by traders, its historical performance as an independent signal has been mixed, with previous golden crosses not always leading to sustained rallies, according to CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole.

AltcoinPro said the latest golden cross has a different backdrop because it followed an extended period in which bitcoin traded below the 200-day average instead of forming near a market peak.

Bitcoin had remained below the 200-day indicator for 293 days before reclaiming it, the analysts said. That was less than the roughly 436-day period it spent below the same level during the 2022-23 bear market.

The immediate focus is now on bitcoin’s recent decline and whether it brings the cryptocurrency back toward the 200-day moving average, potentially putting the latest trend signal to another test.