U.S. Treasury volatility has risen sharply to its highest level since March, even as bitcoin and U.S. equities continue to price in relatively subdued market turbulence. Bitcoin’s BVIV and Wall Street’s VIX remain near their year-to-date lows, creating a notable disconnect between bond markets and other major risk assets.

The MOVE index, which tracks expected volatility in U.S. Treasury markets, increased from roughly 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday. CoinDesk data shows that the reading was the highest since March, when MOVE reached 199.

Bitcoin’s options market remains relatively quiet. Volmex’s annualized 30-day Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index, or BVIV, was around 37, close to its year-to-date low of 35. The gauge reflects the volatility that options traders expect bitcoin to experience over the next four weeks.

The Cboe VIX, which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500, was also hovering near its year-to-date low of 14. Both markets therefore remain relatively calm despite the sharp increase in Treasury volatility.

The divergence highlights the resilience of bitcoin and U.S. stocks so far. Treasury securities play a central role in global financing and credit creation, meaning a sustained increase in bond volatility can tighten financial conditions and discourage risk-taking.

Rising Yields Pressure Bond Markets

The increase in Treasury volatility comes as government bond yields move higher globally. The war in the Middle East has pushed oil and diesel prices higher, adding complications to the inflation outlook and raising uncertainty over how much further central banks may need to tighten monetary policy.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed to 5.2% Thursday before easing to 5.163%.

When MOVE last traded around comparable levels in March, the S&P 500 was near 6,350. The index has since advanced to 7,704, representing a gain of roughly 21%. Despite that stock-market strength, bond traders are now paying substantially more for protection against interest-rate swings.

The relationship between bond and equity volatility has also weakened. The 20-day correlation between MOVE and the VIX fell to −0.06, turning negative for the first time since April 2024, although the figure remains close to zero.

The correlation between MOVE and BVIV is more pronounced at −0.37, one of the lowest readings in years. As expected volatility in Treasuries has increased, bitcoin’s implied volatility has instead remained close to its yearly low.

CoinDesk reported earlier this week that rising Treasury yields alone have not shown a consistent relationship with bitcoin returns, suggesting that higher bond yields have not necessarily translated into a corresponding move in BTC.