Bitcoin is close to recording its third consecutive monthly gain, which would end a September trend that has persisted for more than a decade. However, rising Treasury yields, elevated oil prices and two major events in November could make the next quarter more challenging.

Bitcoin has gained about 7% so far in September, following a 25% jump in August. Since 2013, each year in which bitcoin posted a positive August was followed by a losing September. A positive finish with two calendar days remaining would break that pattern and extend bitcoin’s winning streak from July through September.

The move would also push the cryptocurrency’s third-quarter gain above 40%, giving it its first positive quarter since Q3 2025.

Strong Seasonality Meets Rising Market Pressure

Historically, Q4 has been bitcoin’s strongest quarter. CoinGlass data puts the cryptocurrency’s average gain during the period at approximately 77%.

Bitcoin is currently around $84,000, but several macro indicators are pointing to increased market uncertainty. Bond yields have been rising around the world, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5.2%.

The MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, has also climbed above 100 and is nearing its highs for the year.

Oil is providing another source of inflation pressure, with prices remaining above $90 a barrel. Gold, meanwhile, fell roughly 3% on Monday, trading just above $4,000 an ounce.

Two November Events in Focus

Investors will also have to navigate two significant events in November that could influence liquidity and appetite for risk.

Anthropic is reportedly considering a November IPO. If it goes ahead, the offering could draw investor capital and attention toward the equity market. The company has not yet finalized the timing or size of the potential deal.

The U.S. midterm elections will also take place in November. Markets could become more volatile as investors assess the potential implications for government policy and the broader economic outlook.

Bitcoin enters Q4 with a strong seasonal record and a potential three-month winning streak, but the combination of higher yields, oil prices and major upcoming events could shape how much of that momentum carries into the final quarter.