Consumer Confidence Falls to Lowest Since 2014

U.S. consumer confidence took a significant hit in September, with The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declining 6.7 points to 81.9 from 88.6 in August. The result was well below the 89 economists had anticipated.

The index posted its lowest reading since April 2014, as higher borrowing costs and rising gasoline prices appeared to weigh on consumers.

The Expectations Index also weakened, falling 5.9 points to 63.6. It marked the measure’s third consecutive monthly decline.

Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said confidence deteriorated further in September after weakening during the previous two months.

Consumers became more negative about current business conditions for the first time since September 2024. Their assessment of the current labor market also declined, although it remained in positive territory.

For the next six months, consumers anticipate weaker business and labor-market conditions. Expectations for household income remain positive, but consumers are less confident about income growth than they were in previous months.

Meanwhile, Polymarket contracts put the odds of Democrats sweeping both the Senate and House near a contract high of 62%, while contracts for a Republican sweep stood at 8%.

U.S. Job Openings Fall

The latest JOLTS report showed U.S. job openings declined to 7.079 million in August from 7.335 million in July. The figure was also below the 7.23 million economists had forecast.

Although the data is backward-looking, the decline adds to recent signs that conditions in the labor market are becoming less firm.

The next major employment reading arrives Friday with the September Nonfarm Payrolls report. Economists expect 129,000 jobs to have been added, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

WTI Oil Drops More Than 3%

WTI crude declined more than 3% over the past 24 hours, approaching $90 a barrel after reaching as high as $106 in mid-September.

Since the war in the Middle East began in February, WTI has traded for much of the year between $70 and $100 a barrel.

Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Hits a Yearly Low

Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to 628,000 BTC, its lowest level of the year, from 763,000 BTC at the start of August, CoinGlass data showed.

Bitcoin was around $63,000 at the beginning of August before rallying to approximately $87,500 in mid-September.

The lower open interest points to reduced leverage heading into the fourth quarter, while retail participation remains subdued. Q4 has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods.

Bianco Sees Value in Bonds

Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, said he continues to see an opportunity in bonds and would keep buying if yields rise further.

According to Bianco, the heavy bearish positioning in the bond market provides a significant cushion for investors purchasing bonds at yields near 5.2%.

The WisdomTree Bianco Total Return Fund, which he manages, now has a duration of more than six years, compared with 5.7 years for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.

Bianco has repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin cutting rates in September 2024, arguing that long-term yields have risen instead of falling as short-term rates declined.

With the Fed now tightening and longer-term yields elevated, he believes conditions could support a recovery in bonds.

Credit Spreads Begin to Expand

Credit spreads have started widening after remaining relatively tight earlier in the year.

Fed officials, including Chair Kevin Warsh, had pointed to narrow spreads between different bond grades as evidence that investors remained comfortable with the economic outlook.

Over the past two weeks, however, Bespoke reported a notable increase in the gap between investment-grade and high-yield debt.

RBA Raises Rates Again

The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on Tuesday.

The increase marked the fourth rate hike by the RBA this year and pushed the cash rate to its highest level since 2011. The move comes as the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank have also raised rates while global bond yields remain elevated.

Bitcoin Moves Back Above $84K

Bitcoin rose 1% to slightly above $84,200 after buyers emerged near $82,500. The rebound came with the 10-year Treasury yield holding around 5.25%, following Monday’s rise to its highest level since 2007.

Ether climbed 2% to nearly $2,720, while DOGE gained 3% and XRP advanced 2%. BNB, SOL and TRX each rose less than 1%, HYPE slipped 1%, and ZEC fell 9% to roughly $1,423.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $31 million in net inflows Monday, while Ether ETFs recorded approximately $17 million, according to SoSoValue. SOL and XRP funds brought in another $17 million combined. The U.S. ZEC fund recorded an $8 million outflow.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said the cryptocurrency market was attempting to recover from last week’s low near $2.83 trillion but remained in a short-term downtrend below $2.90 trillion.

He also highlighted the stronger dollar and uncertainty in equity markets as factors weighing on risk assets. Kuptsikevich said Bitcoin had established support around previous highs following its pullback, with sustained positive sentiment potentially opening the path toward multi-month highs above $87,000.