Bitcoin’s latest rally has stalled, leaving traders and analysts focused on whether the cryptocurrency can hold the $82,000 area and regain upward momentum.

Bitcoin climbed to more than $87,400 on Sept. 21 before reversing lower. Since then, it has been testing the $82,000-$83,000 range. The zone has historical significance because bitcoin reached a peak around this level in May before sliding to roughly $57,000 in June.

The cryptocurrency remains close to that range as investors look for signs of its next move. Many market observers continue to anticipate another advance, with some seeing a potential path toward $100,000.

The bearish scenario would become more prominent if bitcoin falls below $82,000. In technical analysis, support is a level where buying interest is expected to counter selling pressure. A former resistance level can become support after it is broken, making $82,000 an important area after bitcoin struggled to clear it in May and again in early September.

“The level to watch is $82k,” said Jeff Anderson, head of U.S. at crypto trading firm STS Digital. Anderson pointed to a double-top formation around $82,000, a pattern in which prices reach a similar high twice before failing to break higher.

“A breakdown will probably yield a slip back into the high 70s,” Anderson said.

He does not view a potential pullback as necessarily ending bitcoin’s broader rally. Anderson cited U.S. inflation and uncertainty surrounding U.S. government debt as factors that could provide longer-term support for the cryptocurrency.

“Any move like this would be well supported,” he said.

Anderson said the recent decline has more to do with the bond market than bitcoin-specific weakness. Treasury prices have been falling while yields have risen, a combination that can make lower-risk government securities more appealing compared with assets such as crypto.

“Current softness this week is a direct result of yield markets unravelling and volatility exploding in fixed income space,” Anderson said. “At the current pace it feels like treasuries will keep selling off until equities finally crack out!”

Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, is tracking a wider support area between $81,500 and $83,000.

“Holding that region would keep the market structure constructive,” Zhang said.

She identified three conditions that could increase the possibility of a deeper correction: bitcoin ETF flows turning negative for several consecutive sessions, continued gains in the 10-year Treasury yield and a failure of support below $82,000.

ETF flows measure the amount of money entering and leaving U.S. exchange-traded funds that hold bitcoin. Persistent outflows can point to reduced investment from larger market participants.

Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, is focused on the $80,000 level.

“A sustained break below $80,000 would suggest the market isn’t ready to push higher for some time,” he said.

Kalchev also said a renewed rebound could shift the price outlook. “Renewed momentum from here could carry price well above $90,000,” he said.

The next major signal could come from inflation data. Anderson said the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, “will be the market’s next guidance” for assessing how long inflation could remain elevated.