Bitcoin hovered around $84,000 as the fourth quarter got underway, with traders focused on Friday’s U.S. jobs report and renewed moves across global bond markets.

The euro came under pressure as French borrowing costs increased while German yields moved lower, widening the gap between the two countries’ 10-year government bonds.

Euro Slides as French Bond Risk Rises

France’s 10-year OAT yield rose 8 basis points, while the equivalent German Bund yield declined 6 basis points. The resulting spread reached 135 basis points.

French credit-default-swap spreads also moved to their highest point in 13 years. In recent years, the spread between French and German 10-year yields has generally stayed around 50 to 80 basis points.

The euro dropped 0.9% to $1.1231, its lowest level in approximately five months.

Traders Reduce Bets on an October Fed Move

U.S. rate expectations shifted as Treasury yields moved lower.

The two-year Treasury yield fell 7.5 basis points to 4.81%, while market-implied odds of an October Federal Reserve move dropped to 33.8%. Earlier in the week, those odds had been close to 70%.

Oil Advances on Middle East Reports

Crude prices climbed after reports that the U.S. was deploying a third aircraft carrier and another Marine unit to the Middle East.

The Jerusalem Post reported the development while citing a U.S. official. WTI crude, which had earlier fallen below $89, gained 2.5% to reach $92.63. Brent rose 3.6% to $101.53.

Manufacturing Remains in Expansion Territory

U.S. manufacturing activity continued to expand in September, but the latest figures showed a notable increase in price pressures.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, compared with 54.6 in August and the 55 forecast. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

The New Orders Index strengthened to 55.3 from 53.7, suggesting improved order activity.

At the same time, the Prices Paid Index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, well above the 72.3 estimate. The report showed that prices increased for every commodity reported, with none recording a decline.

The mixed picture of solid activity and stronger inflation pressures had limited impact on markets as traders waited for the employment data.

NEAR Falls Following $3.8M Exploit

NEAR declined 9% after ZachXBT reported an exploit involving NEAR Intents that caused approximately $3.8 million in losses.

The NEAR Intents service was temporarily halted after its team identified a bug involving the interaction between Omni’s deposit and withdrawal infrastructure and a NEAR Intents smart contract.

The affected contract was subsequently patched. The team said NEAR Intents and near.com were expected to resume within roughly an hour.

10-Year Treasury Yield Posts Major Monthly Jump

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased 53 basis points during September, marking its biggest monthly rise since September 2022, according to Yahoo Finance’s Julie Hyman.

In September 2022, a similar increase in yields coincided with a decline of more than 9% in the S&P 500. This time, the index fell 0.45% during September.

Bitcoin also delivered a different result, losing 3.1% in September 2022 compared with a 6.3% gain in September 2026.

The 10-year yield briefly climbed to 5.362% overnight before retreating to 5.282%. The source described the earlier level as another 24-year high.

Claims Remain Below 200,000

Initial jobless claims came in at 197,000, down slightly from 198,000 previously and below the 200,000 estimate.

The four-week average fell to 200,000 from 202,500.

Attention now turns to Friday’s September nonfarm payrolls report. Economists were forecasting 90,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%.

BTC and ETH Enter Q4 After Strong Gains

Bitcoin gained 42.7% during the third quarter, marking its strongest quarterly advance since a 68.7% increase in Q1 2024.

Ether climbed 70.8% over the same period, recording its strongest quarterly gain since the 160.7% surge in Q1 2021.

Both cryptocurrencies were broadly flat at the beginning of Q4. Bitcoin traded just below $84,000, while ether remained slightly above $2,700.

Markets are now balancing resilient economic activity and rising price pressures against changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with Friday’s employment report likely to provide the next major catalyst.