Bitcoin is closing in on a technical signal that could strengthen the case for a sustained recovery, with its major moving averages nearing a bullish alignment for the first time since 2025.

The cryptocurrency is trading lower today, but its broader trend remains more constructive. Bitcoin’s 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages are approaching a configuration in which each shorter-term average sits above the next longer-term one.

The setup is considered complete when the 50-day average is above the 100-day and the 100-day is above the 200-day. Bitcoin’s 50-day average is currently $79,495, while the 100-day stands at $79,493 and is moving higher. The 200-day average is at $79,539. If the 100-day average crosses above the 200-day, the three indicators will form the bullish sequence.

“That crossover would restore the order of 50-day above 100-day above 200-day for the first time since the previous alignment formed on June 24, 2025,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, told CoinDesk.

Traders use moving averages to smooth price fluctuations and assess market direction. A shorter-term average moving above a longer-term average generally indicates that recent price action is gaining strength relative to the longer-term trend.

The potential crossover comes after bitcoin gained more than 40% during the third quarter, reaching $87,000. The advance has since lost momentum around $85,000 as the U.S. Dollar Index has continued its prolonged rise.

Subburaj said the developing signal supports the view that bitcoin’s latest recovery has held up rather than quickly reversing.

Past examples, however, show that the indicator is not a guaranteed predictor of a major rally. Bitcoin formed the alignment on Oct. 27, 2020, when it was trading around $13,600. The structure remained in place until May 2021, when BTC had climbed to a then-record above $64,000.

A similar setup confirmed in early November 2023 remained intact through May 2024. During that period, bitcoin more than doubled, rising from approximately $35,000 to $73,000.

Other instances were considerably weaker. The alignment that emerged in June 2025 lasted 97 days, but bitcoin increased only from about $106,000 to $112,000. The June 2024 setup lasted just 20 days before BTC declined roughly 10%.

“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said. He added that subsequent price action will determine whether the signal develops into a durable bull-market structure or proves temporary.

For now, the more important indicator may be bitcoin’s behavior during its next correction. Subburaj said holding the 50-day moving average would provide stronger evidence that the broader uptrend remains intact.

“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he said.