Bitcoin fell toward $83,800, with roughly $403.58 million in leveraged crypto long positions liquidated over a single hour. The sharp wave of forced selling highlights the market’s risk-off conditions and relates to Arthur Hayes’s longer-term argument that an AI-driven credit crisis could eventually trigger a bailout and bring more liquidity into crypto.

Hayes believes the enormous investment in AI data centers could initially weigh on risk assets. But if the scale of the buildout creates serious financial problems, government intervention could follow, potentially generating the excess liquidity that Bitcoin could eventually absorb.

The financial scale of the AI infrastructure boom is central to the argument. Estimates cited in the report put U.S. AI infrastructure spending at between $2.8 trillion by 2030 and $10.3 trillion by 2032. Meanwhile, credit platform Atrium estimates that developers have already secured at least $1.3 trillion in debt.

Hayes’s concern goes beyond the size of the spending. He argues that the industry could eventually produce an excess supply of computing capacity while leaving infrastructure providers responsible for large financial obligations. Those commitments rely on AI customers continuing to pay for computing capacity they have reserved.

SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are among the companies expected to provide demand for that capacity. Hayes has said none of them is currently profitable. Columbia economist Stijn van Nieuwerburgh estimates that achieving a 10% return on the infrastructure investment would require approximately $3.7 trillion in annual revenue by 2032.

That difference between massive infrastructure commitments and the revenue economics of AI customers is the key issue in Hayes’s thesis. The crucial test may come when new computing capacity is delivered, which he expects could happen in late 2027 or 2028. Today’s strong demand for compute does not guarantee that every project will generate enough revenue to justify its financing costs.

The possible benefit for Bitcoin would come only after that stress develops. Hayes expects a credit crisis to force a bailout, with the resulting liquidity potentially moving into crypto assets. However, the scenario requires both a meaningful financial shock and a policy response that expands liquidity.

The latest Bitcoin decline shows how leverage can magnify market stress. BTC was about 33% below its October 2025 record of $126,000, according to the report. The $403.58 million in long liquidations near $83,800 demonstrates how quickly forced closures can accelerate a sell-off, but it does not establish a bottom or indicate the potential depth of another decline.

An AI credit shock could initially be bearish for Bitcoin. Investors could cut exposure to risky assets, while falling prices could force leveraged positions to close and create additional selling. Bitcoin would not be immune to that initial risk-off phase simply because Hayes expects it to benefit from a later liquidity injection.

The overbuild argument would weaken if AI customers prove able to pay for their contracted computing capacity and infrastructure investments deliver sustainable returns. If customers struggle to meet those obligations once additional capacity arrives in late 2027 or 2028, Hayes expects credit stress could escalate into a broader crash and eventually lead to a bailout.

Even then, a Bitcoin rally would not be guaranteed. The downturn would first need to become serious enough to prompt intervention, and the resulting response would have to create liquidity that reaches crypto markets rather than simply supporting traditional credit.

Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data could also affect liquidity conditions and investor risk appetite, creating another variable in the relationship between a potential credit crisis and Bitcoin’s price.

For now, Hayes’s view is a long-term macro thesis rather than a signal for immediate Bitcoin trading. If excessive AI investment eventually triggers credit stress and policymakers respond with substantial liquidity, Bitcoin could benefit. Until then, the recent liquidation wave serves as a reminder that heavy leverage leaves crypto vulnerable to sudden and amplified declines.