Bitcoin news: Willy Woo’s latest analysis uses 10,000 simulated price paths to explore Bitcoin’s potential trajectory through 2028, with the median scenario indicating a possible peak of $413,000 in December of that year. The model incorporates Bitcoin’s historically declining cycle returns, although its assumptions leave considerable uncertainty around the projected outcome.

The on-chain analyst shared the simulations on Monday, October 26. Using a random-walk framework trained on Bitcoin’s historical price movements, the model estimates possible future market tops and bottoms while accounting for the tendency of successive cycles to generate smaller percentage gains.

Despite the median projection reaching $413,000, Woo cautioned that the outcome may be optimistic. He highlighted the range between approximately the 28th and 50th percentiles as a more reasonable scenario, suggesting a potential peak between $241,000 and $413,000 in 2028. Woo emphasized that these figures come from a simulation and should not be interpreted as his personal prediction.

With Bitcoin trading at $79,770, the analysis raises questions about how much weight investors should place on historical cycles when evaluating long-term price expectations.

Bitcoin’s Historical Returns Point to a Changing Market Cycle

Woo’s model incorporates the principle of diminishing returns, which suggests that Bitcoin produces smaller percentage gains as its market capitalization expands. As the asset grows, substantially more capital is required to generate comparable percentage increases.

Historical data illustrates this trend. Bitcoin rose from approximately $1,150 in 2013 to nearly $20,000 in late 2017, an increase of roughly 17 times. Its 2021 peak of $69,000 was approximately 3.5 times the previous cycle’s high. In October 2025, Bitcoin established a new record of $126,080, around 1.8 times its 2021 peak.

The power-law framework attempts to represent this gradual decline in returns. Its “c=0.45” parameter determines the rate at which returns diminish over time. The model also uses a phase-conditioned approach, adjusting simulated daily movements to reflect whether Bitcoin is rallying, approaching a market peak, declining, or recovering.

This method preserves the broad four-year cycle structure across the 10,000 simulated paths.

However, the median projection still implies substantial upside compared with previous cycles. A price of $413,000 would be approximately 3.3 times Bitcoin’s October 2025 record, exceeding the relative gain seen in the previous cycle. The lower estimate of $241,000 would represent roughly 1.9 times the previous peak, closer to the 1.8-fold increase recorded between 2021 and 2025.

Why Bitcoin’s Next Peak Could Differ From the Simulation

Although the model provides a structured way to explore possible price outcomes, its reliance on historical patterns creates limitations. Bitcoin’s investment landscape has changed considerably, and future market conditions may not resemble those of previous cycles.

Several factors could influence the cryptocurrency’s actual performance.

Institutional investment: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately $102.8 billion in BTC, while Strategy owns 848,517 BTC. These institutional investment channels were absent during earlier cycles, and their capital flows may not follow Bitcoin’s halving schedule.

Interest rates and liquidity: The Federal Reserve raised rates in September and is scheduled to announce its next policy decision on Wednesday. Changes in monetary policy and financial liquidity can influence demand for risk assets, potentially altering Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Remaining supply: Approximately 20.1 million of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins have already been mined. Consequently, future halvings will reduce new issuance by smaller absolute quantities, potentially changing the effect of supply reductions on the market.

Regulatory and technological developments: Cryptocurrency regulations, competition from other digital assets, and emerging threats such as quantum computing could affect investor sentiment and long-term valuations. These risks are not directly incorporated into a model based primarily on historical prices.

Limited cycle data: Bitcoin has experienced only four complete market cycles. Although the model generates 10,000 scenarios, those projections still depend on a relatively small historical sample. Increasing the number of simulations does not eliminate the uncertainty associated with limited real-world data.

For these reasons, the projected $413,000 peak is better viewed as one possible outcome than as a definitive price target. The simulations illustrate what could happen under a specific set of assumptions, but they cannot reliably determine the timing or exact level of Bitcoin’s next market top.

Bitcoin Price Today: Support and Resistance to Watch

Bitcoin is trading at $79,770, down 2.1% over the past seven days and approximately 36.7% below its October 2025 record. The cryptocurrency remains below its 50-day exponential moving average at $80,765, indicating that it has yet to reclaim this short-term technical benchmark.

Buyers defended the $79,221 level on Saturday and again on Monday, making it an important area of near-term support.

On the upside, resistance stands at $81,480, where previous rebound attempts stalled. A sustained move above this level could bring the next resistance near $82,850 into focus.

If selling pressure pushes Bitcoin below $79,221, the 200-day exponential moving average at $76,382 could become the next important downside level.

For now, traders are monitoring whether Bitcoin can hold its immediate support and recover above the 50-day EMA. Meanwhile, Woo’s long-term simulations offer a framework for assessing Bitcoin’s potential through 2028, although institutional demand, monetary policy, and other changing market conditions could produce outcomes that differ significantly from the model’s projections.