Bitcoin Faces Another Crash Warning as GMMA Indicator Turns Bearish

Bitcoin’s latest technical structure is beginning to resemble the patterns that appeared before its major price declines in February and June. The warning is coming from the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA), which points to weakening momentum among both short-term traders and longer-term investors.

However, the bearish outlook is not the only factor influencing the market. Historical seasonal performance and Bitcoin’s tendency to gain after US midterm elections provide potential reasons for optimism.

The GMMA indicator, created by trader Daryl Guppy, uses two collections of moving averages to evaluate market trends. Shorter-term averages track trading activity and immediate sentiment, while longer-term averages reflect the behavior of investors.

Bitcoin’s daily chart currently shows the price trading beneath both groups. The short-term averages have also crossed below the longer-term ones, a development that typically signals growing selling pressure among traders.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trend Also Shows Signs of Weakness

A crossover between the two moving-average groups does not necessarily mean a sustained decline is underway. Short-term sentiment can reverse quickly, so traders generally look for confirmation from the longer-term averages before treating the pattern as a stronger bearish signal.

That confirmation appears to be developing on Bitcoin’s chart. The red lines representing the longer-term averages are moving closer together and beginning to slope downward.

This suggests investors are becoming less aggressive in accumulating Bitcoin and are increasingly adjusting to lower price levels. With both groups of market participants showing signs of caution, the current GMMA formation carries a stronger bearish message.

Similar Patterns Appeared Before Previous BTC Crashes

Bitcoin recorded a comparable GMMA crossover in late May, followed by a steep decline that pushed its price below $60,000 during the first week of June.

Another similar formation appeared in late January. Bitcoin subsequently dropped from approximately $90,000 to around $62,000.

Although these examples have drawn attention to the latest signal, the GMMA indicator has not always accurately predicted market direction. Its bearish confirmations in August and September 2025, for instance, failed to produce lasting declines as Bitcoin quickly recovered.

ETF Outflows Contrast With Positive Seasonal Trends

The current warning is emerging alongside additional signs of weakening Bitcoin demand in the US. Spot ETF withdrawals have increased, while options-market activity indicates stronger interest in downside protection.

Such positioning suggests that some traders are exiting their holdings or preparing for another period of price weakness.

On the other hand, historical seasonal patterns offer a more constructive outlook. Bitcoin has generally shown strength during this period, and previous US midterm election cycles have often been followed by market advances.

The opposing signals leave Bitcoin’s near-term direction uncertain. Traders will be watching whether the GMMA pattern develops into another significant sell-off or whether seasonal demand and post-election momentum help the cryptocurrency recover.