Bitcoin news: BTC finished Thursday’s trading session below its 200-day EMA as investors awaited the latest US jobs report. Historical figures indicate that Bitcoin gained after 52 of 104 employment releases but declined following all three of the most recent reports.

Bitcoin is heading into Friday, November 6, with the October US employment report scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. The cryptocurrency closed Thursday at $76,088 and has fallen below its 200-day moving average for the first time since August 19.

Although Bitcoin’s historical reaction to employment data has been relatively balanced, recent price movements suggest that the market is facing increased downside pressure.

A Coinspeaker study covering 104 US employment reports since January 2018 found that BTC posted positive returns 24 hours after 52 releases. However, its performance over the following seven days has turned consistently negative across the last three reports. Bitcoin lost 3.3% after the August release, 5.2% following September’s figures and another 3.7% after October’s report.

The latest decline comes amid broader weakness across financial markets. Bitcoin is trading near $76,160, down 5.1% over the past 24 hours. A sharp sell-off in technology stocks on Thursday pushed BTC down from $80,918 to $75,208, its lowest price since September 16. Investor sentiment weakened simultaneously, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping from 50 to 28 within a single day.

Attention is now turning to the Federal Reserve, as the employment figures could influence expectations for its December policy decision. Polymarket data shows traders assigning a 69% probability to a December 9 rate hike, compared with 80% recorded the previous day.

Against this backdrop, investors are watching whether the jobs report could extend Bitcoin’s recent losses or provide enough support for a recovery above its 200-day EMA.

Bitcoin Price History After US Jobs Reports

Bitcoin’s immediate response to employment data has historically been unpredictable. The broader price trend becomes slightly more apparent over a seven-day period, although the historical difference between positive and negative outcomes remains relatively small.

The analysis used hourly BTC trading data from Binance, measuring price changes around the 8:30 a.m. ET release time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ publication archive provided the corresponding report dates. The October 2025 release was omitted because it was canceled during the US government shutdown.

The historical results reveal three different timeframes:

• First hour: Bitcoin advanced after 58 of 104 employment reports, with an average movement of 0.66% in either direction.
• 24-hour performance: BTC recorded gains after 52 reports, producing a median return of 0.07%. The average movement in either direction was 1.92%.
• Seven-day performance: Bitcoin finished higher after 57 releases, with a median weekly gain of 0.67%.

The 2026 figures also highlight a shift in Bitcoin’s reaction to employment data.

During the first seven jobs reports of the year, BTC posted gains over the subsequent seven days after every release. Those increases ranged from 0.5% to 7.6%.

The trend reversed in August, however. Bitcoin declined during the week following each of the next three reports, marking a clear change from its earlier performance.

Still, historical price comparisons do not necessarily establish a direct connection between employment releases and Bitcoin’s subsequent movements. A full week provides enough time for other economic developments, institutional activity and market sentiment to influence prices.

The most significant 24-hour decline in the dataset occurred after the December 2021 employment report. Bitcoin plunged 17.1% as leveraged positions were liquidated during a weekend market downturn.

US Jobs Data Could Change Federal Reserve Rate Expectations

The latest employment figures are particularly important because financial markets are increasingly considering another Federal Reserve rate increase.

At its October 28 policy meeting, the central bank maintained interest rates between 3.75% and 4.00%. The decision passed with a 10–2 vote, while the two dissenting officials preferred a quarter-percentage-point increase.

Market expectations changed following Thursday’s sell-off. Kalshi data showed the probability of a December rate increase falling by 10 percentage points within 24 hours. Meanwhile, the likelihood of the Fed keeping rates unchanged climbed from 22% to 32%.

If the employment report shows stronger-than-expected labor market conditions, traders could once again increase their expectations for a December rate hike. Such a development could weigh on Bitcoin by strengthening concerns about tighter financial conditions.

Conversely, weaker employment figures could encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy for longer. Reduced expectations for additional monetary tightening could help stabilize investor sentiment and support demand for riskier assets.

BTC Technical Analysis: Can Buyers Push Bitcoin Above the 200-Day EMA?

Bitcoin’s immediate technical outlook remains under pressure as its price continues to trade below the 200-day exponential moving average.

The indicator currently stands near $76,540, leaving BTC approximately $380 below this important threshold. The breakdown is notable because Bitcoin had consistently closed above the average on a daily basis since its August breakout.

A move back above the indicator could signal improving buying pressure. However, failure to recover this level may leave the cryptocurrency vulnerable to another decline.

Resistance levels to monitor:

• $76,540: The 200-day EMA and Bitcoin’s first major recovery barrier.
• $79,839: The 50-day EMA, representing the next important resistance level.
• $81,196: Wednesday’s high and a potential upside target if bullish momentum returns.

Support levels to monitor:

• $75,208: Thursday’s lowest price and the nearest downside support.
• $74,968: The September 15 low, which could provide another potential floor.
• $72,598: The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, marking a deeper support zone.

Bitcoin’s historical reaction to US employment reports offers little evidence that the data alone determines its next move. Instead, traders may place greater emphasis on whether BTC can regain the 200-day EMA and finish the week above it.

A sustained recovery could help restore confidence in the bullish trend. However, another weekly close below this average may reinforce bearish conditions and increase the risk of further downside.