MSCI’s planned removal of Strategy from its major equity indexes could threaten the company’s ability to sustain its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy, according to market analysts. The exclusion is expected to trigger selling by passive investment funds, although some experts believe investors have already accounted for much of the potential impact.

Index provider MSCI confirmed that Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder, will be dropped from several widely tracked benchmarks, including the MSCI USA Index, following the market close on November 30.

The decision stems from new eligibility requirements for companies categorized as non-operating entities, introduced by MSCI on October 15. The revised rules have also resulted in Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet (3350) being removed from the MSCI Japan Small Cap Index.

Analysts warn that losing access to passive index demand could make it harder for Strategy to raise funds for additional Bitcoin purchases. However, the extent of the financial impact remains a subject of debate.

MSCI indexes are widely used by investment funds seeking to replicate benchmark performance. When a company is excluded, funds tracking the affected indexes generally need to sell their holdings, potentially creating additional pressure on the stock.

The decision, however, does not affect Strategy’s exchange listing or require it to dispose of its Bitcoin reserves. The company currently holds 850,364 BTC, valued at approximately $62.6 billion.

Strategy Could Face Significant Share Selling

Market estimates suggest that MSCI’s decision could prompt millions of MSTR shares to change hands as passive funds adjust their portfolios.

BloFin Research estimates that index-tracking funds may need to sell approximately 13 million shares, representing around 3.1% of Strategy’s outstanding stock and less than one day’s average trading volume.

Strategy presented a similar estimate in its response to MSCI’s consultation, stating that funds following its global investable indexes hold approximately 13 million MSTR shares.

Those holdings were valued at roughly $1.6 billion based on Wednesday’s share price.

JPMorgan previously projected a much larger potential impact. In November 2025, the bank estimated that Strategy’s removal could result in approximately $2.8 billion in outflows. That amount could increase to $8.8 billion if other index providers introduced comparable restrictions.

However, the estimate was calculated using MSCI’s initial proposal rather than the final rules adopted after its review.

Index Exclusion Could Slow Bitcoin Accumulation

The bigger concern surrounding MSCI’s decision is its potential effect on Strategy’s ability to finance future Bitcoin purchases.

The company has historically raised capital through convertible debt, preferred stock offerings, and common share sales to expand its BTC holdings.

This financing strategy depends heavily on Strategy maintaining a market net asset value (mNAV) above 1x. At that level, its shares trade at a premium to the underlying value of its Bitcoin reserves, allowing the company to issue equity and purchase additional BTC.

Because the newly issued shares are sold at a premium, the resulting Bitcoin acquisitions can increase the amount of BTC backing each existing share.

However, the benefits become limited as the mNAV approaches 1x. If the valuation drops below that level, issuing additional shares could dilute existing shareholders instead of increasing their Bitcoin exposure.

BloFin Research warned that the loss of passive investment demand could push Strategy’s mNAV premium even lower from its current level of approximately 1.08x, potentially weakening its ability to raise capital efficiently.

Strategy’s mNAV Premium Continues to Shrink

Strategy’s valuation multiple has already declined considerably from its November 2024 peak of approximately 3.4x to around 1.08x.

Recent capital allocation figures suggest that the company is increasingly balancing Bitcoin purchases with other financial obligations.

According to its November 9 filing covering the week ended November 8, Strategy raised $283.8 million by selling approximately 2.05 million common shares.

Of the proceeds, $81.9 million was used to purchase 1,036 BTC. Meanwhile, approximately $188.3 million went toward buying back STRC preferred shares, with another $13.6 million added to its cash reserves.

The filing also showed that Strategy held approximately $4.77 billion in cash as of November 8. The company used $21.1 million from its reserves to pay preferred dividends during the reporting week and reported no Bitcoin sales.

Analysts Debate Whether the MSCI Decision Is Already Priced In

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes the potential consequences of Strategy’s exclusion may be less severe than the headline suggests.

He expects the company’s shares to remain relatively weak as their valuation premium over its Bitcoin holdings continues to narrow.

Thielen also argued that MSCI’s decision is unlikely to create significant selling pressure across the broader Bitcoin market. He noted that publicly traded treasury companies have become less influential as their mNAV premiums have declined.

According to Thielen, investors are increasingly questioning the value of businesses that primarily accumulate Bitcoin without generating additional returns from their holdings.

He expects passive funds to reduce their MSTR exposure, but believes other investors will absorb the shares at somewhat lower prices.

He also pointed out that some funds were already underweight Strategy, meaning their actual holdings were below the allocations required by their benchmarks. This could limit the amount of forced selling following the exclusion.

Derin Olenik, an independent Bitcoin analyst, expressed greater concern about the potential consequences.

His estimate of immediate selling pressure is broadly consistent with JPMorgan’s $2.8 billion projection. However, he believes the decision could have a wider impact by weakening the institutional adoption narrative supporting Bitcoin treasury companies.

Olenik warned that selling pressure could exceed $2.8 billion and potentially reach more than $11 billion if other major index providers follow MSCI’s approach.

Bitcoin Treasury Firms May Need to Adopt New Strategies

MSCI’s decision could increase pressure on Bitcoin treasury companies to demonstrate that their business models offer more than simply holding cryptocurrency.

Thielen believes these firms should move toward asset management strategies that generate additional returns from their Bitcoin reserves.

Rather than relying primarily on capital raises and financial engineering, companies could explore yield-generating opportunities and other productive uses for their holdings to demonstrate stronger performance.

Olenik also supported this transition, describing it as the next stage of the industry: “Treasury 2.0.”

Under this approach, Bitcoin-focused companies would prioritize infrastructure development, broader network adoption, monetary utility, and revenue-generating operations built around BTC.

The goal would be to turn Bitcoin reserves into productive assets that generate sustainable returns for shareholders, reducing dependence on continuous fundraising and rising cryptocurrency prices.