XRP’s Rally Stalls Despite SEC Case Closure, Bearish Signals Emerge

XRP’s price has failed to gain strong momentum despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially dropping its case against Ripple. While the legal victory was expected to fuel a sustained rally, key technical indicators now suggest growing downside risks.

One XRP supporter on X recently vented frustration, saying, “You’re not bullish enough!” following the announcement. Many in the community had high expectations that clearing the regulatory hurdle would boost XRP’s performance, especially given the speculation around an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) and its potential inclusion in the U.S. strategic reserve.

However, despite initial excitement, XRP remains stuck in a narrow range between $2.30 and $2.50. The token briefly spiked 11% to $2.59 last Wednesday, but instead of continuing higher, it has struggled to hold gains—a worrying sign for bulls.

Technical Indicators Suggest XRP Could Be Losing Steam

Three-Line Break Chart Shows Bearish Reversal

The three-line break chart, which focuses on meaningful price movements rather than short-term fluctuations, is signaling trouble. A new red bar has appeared on the weekly timeframe, indicating a shift toward bearish momentum.

Historically, similar patterns have preceded extended downturns, including the major sell-offs seen in 2018 and 2021.

MACD and Moving Averages Signal Weakening Trend

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a widely used momentum gauge, has begun printing deeper negative bars below the zero line—suggesting increasing bearish pressure.

Additionally, the 5-week and 10-week simple moving averages (SMAs) have crossed downward, reinforcing the idea that the current trend may be shifting in favor of sellers.

Bollinger Bands Hint at Potential Pullback

XRP’s Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the late 2024 and early 2025 rally, indicating heightened volatility. Historically, similar expansions have been followed by corrections, as was the case in previous market cycles.

If history repeats, XRP could see further downside before any potential recovery.

What’s Needed for a Bullish Reversal?

For XRP to regain bullish momentum, it must break above the key $3 resistance level—its high from March 2. A decisive move past this level would invalidate the bearish setup and signal renewed strength in the market.

While long-term projections remain optimistic—some analysts foresee XRP reaching $10 by the end of the decade—the short-term outlook is increasingly uncertain. Without a strong push higher, XRP could be at risk of further declines.