Coinbase (COIN) heads into Thursday’s earnings release facing muted expectations from Wall Street as retail trading activity slows and analysts brace for a potential miss.

Barclays, JPMorgan, Compass Point, and Oppenheimer have all cut their Q1 forecasts in recent weeks, pointing to softening crypto volumes and lower engagement from retail investors—Coinbase’s most lucrative user base.

Analyst Consensus (via FactSet):

• EPS: $1.93, down from $2.26 in Q4
• Revenue: $2.1B, down from $2.27B
• Trading Volume: $403.8B vs. $439B in Q4

JPMorgan’s revised EPS estimate stands at $1.59, factoring in a 10% drop in volume and weaker overall market performance. Still, adjusted EPS could reach $2.39, supported by operational efficiencies and steady subscription growth.

Key Points from Analysts:

• Barclays: Retail volumes may be as low as $69B, far below the $79.8B consensus.
• Compass Point: Downgraded COIN to “Sell,” citing DEX competition and projected 7% shortfall in transaction revenue.
• Oppenheimer: Cut volume estimates but noted Coinbase’s increasing U.S. spot market share.

Bright Spot: USDC Revenue
Coinbase’s share of growing USDC activity helped offset weaker staking returns. Stablecoin revenue is projected at $304M for Q1, according to Barclays.

Macro Outlook
With retail interest still tepid and decentralized platforms gaining traction, analysts caution that trading may remain underwhelming into Q2. Coinbase stock is down 23% year-to-date, while BTC has climbed modestly, trading at $97,023 (+3.8%).