Most pending spot crypto ETF applications are now viewed as highly likely to gain U.S. regulatory approval — with the exception of one: SUI, which faces a much steeper road.

According to Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is increasingly likely to approve a broad range of spot crypto exchange-traded funds, including those tied to XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Cardano.

“We are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” Seyffart wrote on X. “Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion.”

The analysts’ optimism follows a surge in activity from the SEC, including 19b-4 acknowledgments and S-1 amendment requests — key signs that the regulator is actively working with issuers rather than resisting approval.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, nearly all major altcoin ETF filings now carry a 90% or higher chance of approval, while only SUI, submitted solely by Canary, lags behind. That filing currently holds just a 60% likelihood, largely due to the lack of regulated futures and lingering regulatory uncertainty around the asset.

The sentiment is mirrored in prediction markets. On Polymarket, traders are pricing in a 98% chance that an XRP ETF is approved this year, 91% odds for Solana, and a 71% chance for a Dogecoin ETF.

The momentum suggests a clear shift in the SEC’s approach to digital assets — one that could bring a wave of altcoin ETFs to U.S. markets in the near future.