StanChart Sees Bitcoin Defying Halving Trends, Eyes $200K Year-End Target

Standard Chartered predicts bitcoin (BTC) could break away from its traditional post-halving price patterns and aim for record highs in the second half of 2025, according to a research note published Wednesday.

Historically, bitcoin’s price tends to decline roughly 18 months after a halving—a four-yearly event that slows the growth of new BTC supply. However, this cycle may unfold differently, thanks to strong backing from institutional players.

“The bitcoin halving cycle is dead,” wrote Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at the bank.

Kendrick reaffirmed his bullish year-end price forecast of $200,000 for BTC, projecting that the cryptocurrency could reach around $135,000 by the close of the third quarter.

Key drivers behind the optimistic outlook include sustained inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increasing corporate treasury allocations. Together, these segments absorbed approximately 245,000 BTC during Q2, and Standard Chartered expects this momentum to accelerate further in the months ahead.

On the macroeconomic front, potential catalysts like an early exit by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and progress on U.S. stablecoin regulations could provide additional tailwinds for bitcoin’s price, the report added.