JPMorgan Sees Stablecoin Market Reaching $500B by 2028, Far Below Bullish Forecasts

The stablecoin sector is projected to expand to a $500 billion market by 2028, according to analysts at JPMorgan, a figure that significantly undercuts the more ambitious predictions suggesting the market could swell to $1 trillion or even $2 trillion in the same period.

In a research note led by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank offered a cautious outlook, arguing that stablecoin demand continues to be driven largely by crypto-native activities rather than widespread adoption for payments.

“We consider forecasts projecting the stablecoin market to surge from $250 billion currently to $1 trillion-$2 trillion in the next few years to be overly optimistic,” the strategists wrote.

Stablecoins are digital assets pegged to the value of another asset like the U.S. dollar or gold. They are a critical component of the crypto ecosystem, serving purposes from facilitating trading and acting as collateral in decentralized finance (DeFi) to enabling cross-border payments.

JPMorgan’s report highlights that about 88% of stablecoin demand currently comes from crypto-centric uses such as trading, DeFi applications, and reserves held by crypto companies. Payments, on the other hand, account for just 6% of demand. Even under favorable conditions, JPMorgan suggests that growth in stablecoin use for payments would have only a modest impact on overall market size.

The bank also dismissed the possibility of a significant move of funds from traditional bank deposits or money market accounts into stablecoins, citing the absence of yield advantages and the complexities involved in converting between fiat and crypto assets.

Furthermore, JPMorgan analysts cautioned against comparing stablecoins to systems like China’s e-CNY or mobile payment giants Alipay and WeChat Pay, noting that those platforms are centralized and operate differently from decentralized stablecoin networks.

Overall, JPMorgan sees a path of steady, crypto-focused growth for stablecoins rather than explosive, mainstream adoption.

Not all financial institutions share JPMorgan’s cautious stance. Standard Chartered, for instance, remains far more bullish. In an April research note, the bank predicted that the stablecoin market could expand nearly tenfold if the U.S. passes the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (Genius) Act in the coming months.

Standard Chartered’s analysts argued that new U.S. legislation could legitimize the stablecoin industry further, potentially lifting total stablecoin supply from $230 billion today to $2 trillion by the end of 2028.